FINC2012
同步拓展课1
TUTOR:Dan
全球累计服务用户超十万
Part 1 Background
Part 2
Part 3
Q1 提出项目
Q2 分析competitive advantage
Part 4 Q3 计算WACC
Part 5 Reference
Background
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Background
背景介绍:
• 根据Wesfarmers (WES) FY23的strategy paper:
1. 提出一个可以帮助达成WES战略目标 (strategic objective)的项目 (Acquisition)
2. WES在这个项目上有什么竞争优势 (competitive advantage)
3. 计算这个项目的discount rate
• 根据以上题目写一篇2000字报告。
Q1提出项目
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q1 提出项目
What to write:
• 介绍WES
• 介绍WES的战略目标
• 提出相关项目
• 为什么提出这个项目？
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q1 提出项目
介绍WES:
• 公司网站 / 年报 / strategy paper
• Wesfarmers : conglomerates。6 Pillars:
o Bunnings (Hardware)
o K-mart & Target (discounted department store)
o Officeworks
o WesCEF
o Industrial & Saftey (work wear)
o Health (API, Priceline).
o Other business ( BWP).
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q1 提出项目
介绍战略目标:
• Strategic objective: Provide satisfactory return to shareholders
• Strategies:
Source: Wesfarmers strategy paper pp5
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q1 提出项目
介绍战略目标:
• Strategic objective: Provide satisfactory return to shareholders
• Strategies:
Source: Wesfarmers strategy paper pp5
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q1 提出项目
提出项目:
• 题目明确提示了可以考虑通过并购 (acquisition)实现战略目的。
• 选择一个Pillar，从该Pillar里选取一个目标公司提出并购。
• E.g. Bunnings:
Source: Wesfarmers strategy paper pp30
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q1 提出项目
为什么提出这个项目:
• 为什么认为这个项目可行:
o 宏观因素
o 行业发展
• 需要搜资料justify.
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q1 提出项目
为什么提出这个项目:
• E.g. Bunnings
o 收购Hardware公司如Mitre 10:
▪ Hardware市场属于highly fragmented，收购Mitre 10进一步提升市场份额，增加
议价权 (搜资料证明market share).
▪ Housing demand? Population growth? Lifestyle trends?
o 收购宠物用品公司如Pet Barn:
▪ Bunnings 2023年刚推出宠物用品业务，可以通过收购Pet Barn快速提高市场份
额。参考Bunnings收购Beaumont Tiles & Adelaide Tools。
▪ 超半数家庭拥有宠物？超半数拥有宠物的家庭愿意为宠物DIY？
▪ https://www.9news.com.au/national/bunnings-pet-range-bunnings-launches-new-
pet-range-in-stores-and-online/31125147-ccc6-4261-96f9-71d0e703eda4
Q2 分析competitive advantage
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q2 分析competitive advantage
What to write:
• Group level competitive advantage (不管写什么收购项目都用的到)
o Lower cost of debt & high liquidity
o National distribution infrastructure
• Division level competitive advantage (WES在那个具体行业的优势)
o 每个Division不太一样，基本围绕
▪ economies of scale & low price
▪ Streamline process & operation efficiency
▪ Strategy paper + 自己搜资料justify
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q2 分析competitive advantage
Lower cost of debt & high liquidity:
• From WES Strategy Paper pp7:
o Strong & flexible balance sheet to support investment and take advantage of
opportunities.
▪ Strong credit ratings: S&P A-
▪ Diversified funding across domestic and international debt capital market, and
unused bank facilities of c.$2b.
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q2 分析competitive advantage
Lower cost of debt & high liquidity:
• 需要数据证明WES债务融资成本低，liquidity高。
• 找comparable company (E.g. Woolworth, Metcash)对比:
o Lower cost of debt:
▪ Cost of debt (weighted average interest rate)
▪ Credit ratings
o Higher liquidity
▪ Total debt ratio
▪ 其他liquidity ratio如current ratio, Debt/EBIDTA ratio, etc.
• 找出结果，表格展示结果，最好各数据都可以证明WES更优。
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q2 分析competitive advantage
Lower cost of debt & high liquidity:
• 可以跟最近的利率上涨联系起来:
o 为了抑制疫情后的通货膨胀，RBA自2022年5月份以来共进行了12次加息。基准利
率 (cash rate)从当初的0.1%上涨至现在的4.1%。
o 公司贷款利率随之上涨，公司融资成本上升
o 这种环境下WES拥有的lower cost of debt和higher liquidity显得尤其重要。
• 可以搜资料完善观点，如:
o 最近进行大笔投资的公司是怎样融资的？融资利率如何？
o E.g. Wesfarmers 下属Health部门2023年7月份进行了c. $100m的并购，可以搜资料了
解。
o 了解其他公司并购下的融资成本。
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q2 分析competitive advantage
National distribution infrastructure:
• National operator with shops all over Australia.
• Provide the project with an edge on logistics & potential reduction on transportation &
logistics cost.
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q2 分析competitive advantage
Division specific competitive advantage:
• Lower cost & higher operating efficiency – especially important in a year of high cost
inflation:
o From FY23 Annual report:
Source: Wesfarmers Annual Report
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q2 分析competitive advantage
Division specific competitive advantage:
• 可以额外搜索跟项目具体相关division的competitive advantage:
o E.g. Bunnings, Kmart, Target and Officeworks are well placed versus smaller competitors
given higher average selling prices and scale advantages.
o https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2022/06/10/challenges-ahead-for-
wesfarmers/
Q3 计算WACC
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
What to do:
• 找出计算WACC所需各variable (需要justification):
o 计算capital structure: D & E
o 计算cost of debt: rd
o 计算cost of equity: re
▪ 找rf
▪ 计算beta
▪ 找Market risk premium (MRP)
• 用WACC公式计算出Cost of Capital。
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
背景知识:
• Cost of capital = Cost of debt和Cost of equity的加权平均值。税后WACC需考虑debt所带
来的避税效果 (tax shield).
= 1 −


+


• 计算出WACC后可以通过WACC和FCF计算出公司价值。
• ：corporate tax rate (前边用了什么这里就用什么).
o Statutory tax rate: 30%。
o Effective tax rate:实际所缴纳税率， 每年不一样。
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
背景知识:
• Under imputation taxation system (taxation system in AU):
after tax WACC = 1 −


+
1 −
1 − 1 −


• Assuming = 1(domestic investor)，the formula can be further simplified:
= 1 −


+ (1 − )


• Meaning dividend can also provide tax-shield benefit due to franking credits.
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
计算capital structure (Book value or Market value?)
• According to Dumrauf (2016):
o Book values are more reliable than market value because it is less volatile
o Damodaran states many CFO perceive book value method as a more conservative
method because book value is often lower than market value.
• According to the same author, however:
o Book values are historical and can be outdated and misleading.
o Book values do not incorporate future potential earnings and cashflows. A company can
have a negative book value due to past loss while having a positive market value since it
is determined by the company’s future expectations.
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
计算capital structure –找数据:
• Value of debt:
o Book value: Balance sheet里的borrowing或Interest-bearing debt或其他类似名字
o Market value：Debt的book value基本都可以approximate它的market value
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
计算capital structure –找数据:
• Book value of equity:
o Balance sheet里的Total shareholder’s equity (A-L).
• Market value of equity:
o 通过Balance Sheet (或DataAnlysis Premium)找到公司在财年结束时的 “number of
stocks outstanding”.
o 通过Yahoo Finance找到公司股票在财年结束时的市场价格，乘以数量求出market
value of equity。
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
计算Capital Structure (D/V & E/V):
• 可以考虑用long-term debt不用total debt:
o Short-term borrowings are transient and are believed not to be part of a stable measure,
such as the capital structure.
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
求cost of debt (rd):
• 方法1:公司年报里有时会说所有欠债平均利率是多少，年报里搜“interest rate”，
“cost of borrowing”，“effective interest”，“weighted-average interest rate”等。
• 方法2: income statement取interest expense，balance sheet取total borrowing (前边求出的
total debt)，除一下得出cost of debt。
o Cost of debt = Total interest / Total debt or Net interest / Net debt
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
求cost of equity (re):
• cost of equity需要自己去求：
o 用CAPM，需要自己找rf, (rm – rf),以及 stock beta:
= + ∗ ( − )
Q3. 计算WACC
找Rf:
According to Damodaran 2008:
• Treasury securities such as government bond in the country of the company being evaluated,
with a same maturity to the investor’s investment horizon should be used. Because:
o Government securities eliminate/minimize the risk of default
o Using same-duration government bond minimizes reinvestment & refinancing risk
• We call it the proxy to risk-free rate of return because return on government bond still faces
certain risks, such as the inflation risk.
• 10-year average or most recent rf? Inflation & rising interest rate
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
CAPM-找MRP:
• According to Lonergan Edwards & Associates Limited (2020)
o MRP needs to be estimated from long-term data in order to obtain an unbiased
estimation.
o The MRP suggested in the survey of different organizations, such as KPMG and Asher
and Hickling, range from 5% to 7% for the Australia market.
• According to Bishop (2018)
o MRP estimated using the 135 years data from 1883-2017, should be 6.5%.
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
CAPM-找beta:
• WES为conglomerate，公司风险为所有项目的平均风险。
• i.e. 公司beta 不等于项目beta
• 需要:
o 找comparable company
o 求出comparable company的beta
o Un-lever comparable beta
o Re-lever to target beta
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
CAPM-找beta:
• WES为conglomerate，公司风险为所有项目的平均风险。
• i.e. 公司beta 不等于项目beta
• 需要:
o 找comparable company
o 求出comparable company的beta
o Un-lever comparable beta
o Re-lever to target beta
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
CAPM-找beta:
• Comparable company:
o Bowen (2005) mentioned that find comparable companies in the US is a common
approach for Australian stocks because it is generally difficult to identify Australian
comparables.
H D · E D U C A T I O N
Q3. 计算WACC
Solving for Re:
• 找出Rf, MRP, 以及Equity beta之后，用CAPM 求出Re即可。
• Re = rf + beta*(rm– rf)
References
H D · E D U C A T I O N做reference及搜资料
• Most of the references used need to be academic, such as journal articles and published
books.
• Search on Google: Use keywords + PDF
• Search on university database: Library – Databases – Finance. Search in the format of
“(keyword 1 OR Synonyms) AND (keyword 2 OR Synonyms)”
H D · E D U C A T I O N做reference及搜资料
• References need to be in APA 7th.
• Do not type in references manually. Use website or software to help you reference.
• E.g. Use Mendeley
• Remember to add caption to all figures and tables.
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同步拓展课2