Macquarie Equity Research
29 June 2023
Santos
2Q may be soft, but key catalysts in-tact
Key Points
• We forecast 2Q production of 21.7MMboe (weakest in 14 quarters) and
revenue of US$1.34bn (weakest revenue in 8 quarters).
• Production weakened as Darwin LNG & Devil Creek near life end, and
key LNG projects PNG & GLNG had slightly weaker shipments.
• Look for (i) signs that PNG sell down is on track for August completion
and/or (ii) improved visibility on Barossa project resuming progress.
2Q likely softer on production declines
• Darwin LNG near life end & may have shipped final cargo - should be
tailgas for domestic users (much needed in NT, given Blacktip issues).
• Devil Creek (WA) production is down due to end-of-life operations (no
production in April, running at 40-50TJ/d through May & June).
• PNG LNG had the weakest quarter in 9 quarters (April shipments were
the weakest in 24 months).
• GLNG export shipments weakened in 2Q, with minor maintenance
activities (and potentially more cautious operations given lingering
ADGSM concerns).
We have raised oil price assumptions
• Led by our Houston macro colleagues, we have raised Brent oil
assumptions in 2H23 (US$77.5/bbl vs. US$70/bbl prev.) & 2024 (US$70/
bbl vs. US$65/bbl prev.). We continue to use a US$65/bbl assumption
from 2025E.
Market is looking for the next buyback
STO has completed the US$700m buyback (all from 2022 FCF's); nothing
yet declared from 2023 FCF's or from the US$1.1bn anticipated proceeds
of the PNG LNG 5% selldown.
Earnings changes: EPS are +6.5% in 2023e, on production updates and
higher oil prices 2H23. 2024e/2025e are +16%/+8% on extension of
our Houston colleagues near-term oil forecast through to 4Q24, higher
production and slightly lower non-cash costs.
Valuation: TP -1% to $10.00/sh. Higher earnings more than offset by higher
discount rate 10.45% (was 9.6%; key change is a higher Rf of 3.07%).
Catalyst: PNG LNG selldown & new buyback (Aug-2023), Barossa
resumption of drilling (4Q23), Papua FID (4Q23). M&A interest.
Investment Thesis and Recommendation
We remain attracted to STO's superior FCF growth profile (even with
Barossa delays). STO has plentiful growth options to reload and grow the
production base - however we expect the 2Q will highlight the headwinds
it faces with some assets reaching life-end and/or facing near term
production issues.
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Australia
Mark
Wiseman, CFA
Toby
Arthur
STO AU Outperform
Price (at 29 Jun 2023) AUD7.41
12-month target AUD10.00
12 month TSR (%) 40.1
Volatility Index Low
Market Cap (Local) (m) 24,125
Market Cap (USD) (m) 15,924
30-day avg turnover (AUD)(m) 76.1
 
Investment Fundamentals
Year end 31 Dec 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E
Revenue (m) 7,790 5,946 5,315 5,119
EBITDA (m) 6,933 5,372 4,725 4,403
EBITDA growth (%) 83.4 (22.5) (12.0) (6.8)
EBIT (m) 3,709 3,008 2,425 2,034
EBIT growth (%) 116.9 (18.9) (19.4) (16.1)
Reported profit (m) 2,112 2,228 1,332 1,083
Adjusted profit (m) 2,461 1,841 1,332 1,083
EPS adj (¢) 74.5 57.7 44.4 35.9
EPS adj growth (%) 68.8 (22.5) (23.0) (19.1)
PER adj (x) 6.6 8.5 11.0 13.6
PER rel (x) 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0
Total DPS (¢) 22.7 33.0 19.4 25.2
Total DPS growth (%) 62.1 45.5 (41.2) 29.7
Total div yield (%) 4.6 6.8 4.0 5.2
Franking (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.8
ROA (%) 12.6 10.4 8.3 7.0
ROE (%) 17.3 12.2 8.8 7.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.7 3.3 3.7 3.9
Net debt/equity (x) 15.6 3.0 7.5 15.8
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
STO AU rel ASX 100 performance, &
rec history
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, Jun 2023 (all figures in
USD unless noted, TP in AUD)
For important disclosures and analyst certification, refer to page 7 or go to www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.  1
Macquarie Equity Research Santos
Figure 1 - STO's LNG output declining as Darwin
LNG reaches life end and GLNG shipments have
been more cautious
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Source: Kpler, Macquarie Research estimates, June 2023
Figure 2 - PNG LNG had a weak month in April
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Source: Kpler, Macquarie Research estimates, June 2023
Figure 3 - Darwin LNG is now very close to life end
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Source: Kpler, Macquarie Research estimates, June 2023
Figure 4 - GLNG running slower & took minor
maintenance in June
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Source: Kpler, AEMO, Macquarie Research estimates, June 2023
Figure 5 - Varanus Island saw another outage in 2Q
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Source: AEMO, Macquarie Research, June 2023
Figure 6 - Devil Creek still eeking out small volumes
but nearing life end
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Source: AEMO, Macquarie Research, June 2023
29 June 2023 2
Macquarie Equity Research Santos
Figure 7 - Macedon - Stable in 2Q
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Source: AEMO, Macquarie Research, June 2023
Figure 8 - Fairview - Volumes lifting over 2Q
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Figure 9 - Moomba - Stronger but choppy in 2Q
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Figure 10 - Roma has had some variability in 2023
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Figure 11 - Arcadia has been a good performer
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Figure 12 - Scotia - rising over 2023
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Source: AEMO, Macquarie Research, June 2023
29 June 2023 3
Macquarie Equity Research Santos
Key Risks to Investment Thesis
Key downside risks:
• Lower oil / LNG prices
• Inability to complete 5% sell-down of PNG LNG to Kumul
(i.e. higher rates, expiry of deadline).
• Climate activism & litigation that causes delays and cost
increases on key projects (eg. Barossa).
Company Description
Santos is an upstream oil & gas producer headquartered in
Adelaide, with a particular focus on LNG producing assets. Key
assets are in Papua New Guinea, Australia and USA (Alaska).
It targets net zero emissions by 2040, with several carbon
capture & storage (CCS) hubs driving decarbonisation. It has
committed to return 40% of underlying FCF in the form of
dividends and on-market buybacks.
Figure 13 - STO has just completed its US$700m buyback
6.2
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
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2,000,000
A
$
/s
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N
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m
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s
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a
re
s
Shares Acquired STO Share Price (RHS)
Source: Company data, FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2023
29 June 2023 4
Macquarie Equity Research Santos
Figure 14 - STO - Summary Financials
Santos (STO-AU)
Outperform
Profit & Loss 1H23e 2H23e 2022a 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e Price Assumptions 1H23e 2H23e 2022a 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
Sales Revenue US$m 2,972 2,974 7,790 5,946 5,315 5,119 5,945 AUD/USD ¢ 0.67 0.66 0.69 0.66 0.69 0.69 0.70
Other Revenue US$m 150 161 462 311 306 302 299 Domestic Gas A$/GJ 8.60 8.24 9.46 8.42 7.14 6.80 6.77
Total Revenue US$m 3,122 3,135 8,252 6,256 5,621 5,421 6,244 Oil Price (Brent) US$/bbl 80.08 77.50 100.18 78.79 70.00 65.63 67.32
less Operating Costs US$m (824) (819) (2,428) (1,643) (1,555) (1,653) (2,037)
Underlying EBITDAX US$m 2,298 2,316 5,825 4,614 4,066 3,768 4,206 Production 1H23e 2H23e 2022a 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
less Exploration Expensed US$m (32) (10) (148) (42) (20) (16) (16) Natural Gas PJ 85 103 212 187 189 233 292
EBITDA US$m 2,266 2,306 5,677 4,572 4,046 3,752 4,190 Crude mmbbl 3 3 8 7 6 5 12
less Dep. & Amort. US$m (746) (818) (1,968) (1,563) (1,621) (1,718) (1,799) Condensate mmbbl 2 2 6 4 4 5 5
less Other Non-Cash Costs US$m - - (221) - - - - LPG k tonnes 64 58 149 122 116 114 113
EBIT US$m 1,520 1,488 3,709 3,008 2,425 2,034 2,391 LNG k tonnes 2,371 2,277 5,376 4,648 4,403 5,267 5,948
less Net Interest US$m (42) (33) (254) (74) (144) (179) (317) Total Production mmboe 44 47 103 91 88 96 113
Pre-Tax Operating Profit US$m 1,478 1,456 3,455 2,934 2,281 1,855 2,075 Third Party Sales mmboe 7 6 17 14 14 13 13
less Tax Expense (Incl PRRT) US$m (541) (552) (994) (1,093) (949) (771) (711) Total Sales mmboe 47.5 50.8 112 98 97 103 118
Net Operating Profit US$m 937 904 2,461 1,841 1,332 1,083 1,363 Emissions 1H23e 2H23e 2022a 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
add Non-Recurring Items US$m - 387 (349) 387 - - - Scope 1 (Production) MtCO2e 4.6 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.9
Reported Profit US$m 937 1,291 2,112 2,228 1,332 1,083 1,363 Scope 2 (Energy Use) " 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
add (Goodwill Amm - Pref Div) US$m - - - - - - - Scope 3 (Customer Use) " 30 26 26 28 33
Adjusted Profit US$m 937 904 2,461 1,841 1,332 1,083 1,363 - Offsets " - - 1 2 3
Net Scope 1 + 2 MtCO2e 4.9 4.3 4.1 4.5 5.2
EPS (Adjusted) Acps 44 43 108 87 64 52 68
EPS Growth % (21%) (1%) 81% (19%) (26%) (19%) 31%
DPS (Ordinary & Special) UScps 14.5 18.5 22.7 33.0 19.4 25.2 28.2
DPS (Ordinary & Special) Acps 21.6 28.2 33.4 49.8 28.1 36.3 40.6
Franking % - - - - - 63% 100%
EFPOWA Shares on Issue m 3,189 3,189 3,303 3,189 3,000 3,015 2,895
Cashflow Analysis 1H23e 2H23e 2022a 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
Cash Receipts from Operations US$m 3,144 3,167 8,708 6,311 5,749 5,409 6,098
less Operating Costs US$m (379) (522) (2,914) (901) (1,368) (2,190) (2,403)
less Gross Interest Paid US$m 37 39 (191) 76 46 (9) (189)
less Tax Paid US$m (210) (220) (885) (429) (352) (301) (319)
Cashflow from Operations US$m 2,593 2,464 4,558 5,056 4,075 2,909 3,188
less Development & Exploration US$m (1,332) (1,589) (1,707) (2,921) (2,977) (2,933) (1,644) Reserves 2022a 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
less Acq./Inv. US$m - - (264) - (90) - - Natural Gas PJ 8,755 8,187 7,998 7,765 7,473
add Divestment US$m - 1,100 302 1,100 - - - Oil mmbbl 51 45 39 34 22
less Dividends Paid US$m (500) (472) (536) (973) (791) (781) (645) Condensate mmbbl 65 58 54 49 44
add Debt Movements US$m (398) (391) (2,445) (789) (697) 301 133 LPG k tonnes 897 775 660 545 432
add Equity Movements/Other US$m (301) (316) (420) (617) (791) (378) (192) Total 2P Reserves mmboe 1,573 1,482 1,394 1,298 1,185
Net Cashflow US$m 62 795 (512) 857 (1,272) (883) 840 Contingent Resources mmbbl 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219
add Exchange Rate Adj. US$m - - (112) - - - - Total Reserves & Resources mmboe 4,792 4,701 4,613 4,517 4,404
Increase in Cash US$m 62 795 (624) 857 (1,272) (883) 840
Net Debt at Year End (inc. Leases)US$m 2,711 1,306 3,167 1,306 1,970 3,206 2,505 2P Reserve Life years 15.2 16.4 15.8 13.5 10.5
EV/ 1P Reserves US$/boe 28.90 32.12 36.02 41.53 50.60
Balance Sheet 1H23e 2H23e 2022a 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e EV / 2P Reserves US$/boe 16.65 17.66 18.78 20.18 22.10
Cash & Cash Eq. US$m 2,414 3,209 2,352 3,209 1,938 1,055 1,895 EV / Total Resources US$/boe 5.46 5.57 5.68 5.80 5.95
Current Assets US$m 5,159 5,216 5,128 5,216 3,834 2,940 3,926
Fixed Assets US$m 23,987 23,871 23,728 23,871 25,228 26,387 26,151 Per Barrel Statistics 1H23e 2H23e 2022a 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
Total Assets US$m 29,146 29,087 28,856 29,087 29,062 29,326 30,076 Sales Revenue/boe US$/boe 67.69 63.63 75.48 65.60 60.16 53.09 52.62
Current Liabilities US$m 3,240 2,842 3,472 2,842 3,073 2,584 2,270 EBIT/boe US$/boe 34.63 31.84 35.94 33.19 27.45 21.09 21.17
Total Liabilities US$m 14,245 13,760 14,013 13,760 14,025 14,405 14,668 Profit/boe US$/boe 21.35 19.33 23.85 20.31 15.08 11.24 12.07
Shareholder Equity US$m 14,894 15,327 14,843 15,327 15,037 14,921 15,408 Opex/boe US$/boe 8.15 7.66 13.21 10.18 10.57 10.95 12.34
Capex/boe US$/boe 30.34 34.00 16.54 32.22 33.70 30.42 14.55
Ratio Analysis 1H23e 2H23e 2022a 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e DDA/boe US$/boe 16.98 17.49 16.93 17.25 18.35 17.82 15.92
ND/ND+E % 8% 13% 18% 8% 12% 18% 14% Cashflow/boe US$/boe 59.06 52.71 44.17 55.79 46.12 30.17 28.21
Interest Cover x 16.6x 11.2x 14.6x 40.4x 16.8x 11.4x 7.6x
Dividend Payout Ratio % - - 36% 47% 44% 70% 60% NPV @ WACC of 10.5%
ROA % 5% 4% 13% 10% 8% 7% 8% Producing Assets US$m A$ps %
ROE % 6% 4% 17% 12% 9% 7% 9% PNG LNG (Trains 1 & 2) 7,641 3.57
ROIC % 5% 4% 14% 11% 9% 7% 9% GLNG (Trains 1 & 2) 1,922 0.90
Effective Tax Rate % 34% 37% 26% 34% 37% 37% 30% WA Gas 2,785 1.30
EBITDA Margin % 76% 78% 73% 77% 76% 73% 70% Cooper Basin - 2P 2,916 1.36
EBIT Margin % 51% 50% 48% 51% 46% 40% 40% PNG operated oil production 151 0.07
Free Cashflow US$m 875 341 3,153 2,136 1,098 (24) 1,543 WA Oil 12 0.01
Darwin LNG (and Bayu Undan) 864 0.40
Valuation 1H23e 2H23e 2022a 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e Developing Assets
EV/EBITDAX Ratio x 7.9x 7.8x 3.1x 3.9x 4.4x 4.8x 4.3x Caldita/Barossa 1,156 0.56
EV/DACF Ratio x 10.5x 10.4x 3.8x 5.2x 6.0x 6.2x 5.5x Dorado (Incl Pavo) 1,273 0.59
P/E Ratio x 17.2x 17.2x 6.9x 8.6x 11.6x 14.4x 11.0x Papua LNG 764 0.36
P/CFPS Ratio x 9.4x 9.0x 3.7x 4.6x 5.2x 5.5x 4.7x Alaska Oil 2,508 1.17
FCF Yield % 7.8% 5.6% 18.5% 13% 7% nmf 10% Gunnedah/Narrabri (NSW) - -
Dividend Yield % 2.9% 3.8% 4.5% 6.7% 3.8% 4.9% 5.4% Exploration 165 0.06
Financial Assets
Sensitivities (Adjusted Earnings) Valuation 2023e 2024e 2025e Corporate/Tariffs/Other (323) (0.15)
Oil price (+US$1/bbl) US$m 10.19 1,864 1,362 1,113 Cash & Investments 1,940 0.91
delta 0.19 23 30 30 Debt (2,340) (1.09)
2% 1% 2% 3% Carbon - Safeguard Mechanism (259) (0.12)
Risked NPV 21,174 9.88
Share Price Prem/(Disc) to NPV (24%)
Core NPV per Share (A$) 9.92
Risked NPV per Share (A$) 10.00
Unrisked NPV per Share 14.04
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
mmboe
Gas Crude Condensate LPG LNG
Actual
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2023
29 June 2023 5
Macquarie Equity Research Santos
Key Quant Pick
The quant model currently holds a reasonably positive
view on Santos. The strongest style exposure is Valuations,
indicating this stock is under-priced in the market relative
to its peers. The weakest style exposure is Earnings
Momentum, indicating this stock has received earnings
downgrades and is not well liked by sell side analysts.
Macquarie Alpha Model: Key rankings
The Macquarie Quant’s flagship Alpha model is a dynamic
multi-factor model based on a staple of quant factors such
as value, momentum, revisions, quality, and risk.
Global Market (Country) Sector
Whole Universe Australia & NZ Oil, Gas &Consum. Fuels
Macquarie Alpha
Model 3101/17575 69/421 121/422
Fundamental
(Consensus) * 4429/17575 71/421 112/422
* based on Total Shareholder Return = Consensus Price target / Current Price
Current and Historical Alpha Model Rank
The chart shows the Macquarie Alpha model ranking against
the company’s peers and over recent history.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Beach Energy Ampol Worley Santos Woodside
Energy
Origin Energy
Current 1 Year Ago 3 Year Ago 5 Year Ago
Most Attractive
Least Attractive
Drivers of Stock Return
Breakdown of 1-year total return (local currency) into returns
from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and
the resulting change in earnings multiple.
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Beach Energy
Ampol
Worley
Santos
Woodside Energy
Origin Energy
Dividend Return Multiple Change Forecast Earnings
Change
1Yr Total Return
Alpha Model Decomposition
The Macquarie Alpha is decomposed into its sector and
market relative factor & styles exposures (a higher/better
percentile is coded in green, whilst lower in red).
Percentile
relative to
Factors / Styles
sectors
(/422)
market
(/421) Core factors in definition
ALPHA 71% 84% See all the styles below
VALUE 47% 81% Book, CF, Yield, Earnings Multiples
ANALYST 50% 26% Revisions (Earnings, Recommendations)
MOMENTUM 67% 69% Price Momentum
GROWTH 70% 82% EPS, Sales (Forecast, Historic)
PROFITABILITY 58% 82% ROE, Margin, Asset Turnover
QUALITY 48% 55% Accruals, Earn Stability, Cash Conversion
CAPITAL 59% 85% Investment/Capex, Net share issuance
LIQUIDITY 82% 87% Size, Turnover, Analyst Coverage
RISK 68% 55% Beta, Volatility, Earn.Cert, Leverage
TECHNICAL 34% 50% MACD, RSI, Bollinger, Williams R, etc
Factors driving the Alpha Model vs peers
For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying
styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha
score.
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Beach Energy
Ampol
Worley
Santos
Woodside Energy
Origin Energy
Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings
Momentum
Price
Momentum
Quality
Macquarie Style Returns over last year
Recent performance to Macquarie style factors
Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for
Australia & NZ Dec - 23
Nov - 
23
Oct - 
23
Sep - 
23
Aug - 
23
Jul - 
23
Jun - 
23
May - 
23
Apr - 
23
Mar - 
23
Feb - 
23
Jan - 
23
Last 5
Years
(ann)
Last 10
Years
(ann)
ALPHA 1% -3% 0% 0% -1% -1% -3% 0% 4% 6% -8% -1% -5% 0%
VALUE 3% -3% -5% -1% -2% 1% 2% -2% 4% 6% -10% 5% 0% -2%
ANALYST -1% 0% -1% 0% 0% -3% -5% -3% 5% 5% 0% 1% 8% 6%
MOMENTUM -1% -3% 1% -4% -4% -2% 0% -3% 2% 5% -8% 3% -13% -2%
GROWTH 5% -2% 0% -3% -4% 0% -6% 3% -1% 5% 0% 1% -8% -1%
PROFITABILITY -1% -4% 3% -5% 4% -3% 5% -2% 4% -3% 2% 2% 2% 3%
QUALITY 3% -2% -1% 0% -2% -1% 2% -6% 0% -2% -1% 6% -11% -8%
CAPITAL 0% -1% 4% -3% -2% 0% 1% 1% -3% 1% -3% 1% -2% 0%
LIQUIDITY 0% 0% 1% -9% 0% 2% 4% 1% 2% 1% -5% -1% -2% -1%
RISK 3% -1% -4% 6% -5% 0% -2% -3% 1% 0% -6% 2% 2% 0%
TECHNICAL 1% 3% 4% 1% 3% -1% 8% 4% 0% 3% -3% 9% 13% 11%
Source (all charts): FactSet, Refinitiv, and Macquarie Quant. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global
Quantitative Team: maccapequitiesresearchquantglobal@macquarie.com. Explanation for items on this page can be found at https://www.macquarieinsights.com/rp/d/r/p/OTUyMzg1
29 June 2023 6
Macquarie Equity Research Santos
Analysts
Mark Wiseman, CFA
+61 418 375 283
mark.wiseman@macquarie.com
Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited
Toby Arthur
+61 410 746 272
toby.arthur@macquarie.com
Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited
Important Disclosures
Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition Financial definitions
Macquarie – Asia and USA
Outperform – expected return >10%
Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%
Underperform – expected return <-10%
Macquarie – Australia/New Zealand
Outperform – expected return >10%
Neutral – expected return from 0% to 10%
Underperform – expected return <0%
During periods of share price volatility,
recommendations and target prices may
occasionally and temporarily be inconsistent
with the above definitions.
Recommendations – 12 months
Note: Quant recommendations may differ
from Fundamental Analyst recommendations
This is calculated from the volatility of historical price
movements.
Very high – highest risk – Stock should be expected to
move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be
aware this stock is highly speculative.
High – stock should be expected to move up or down at
least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this
stock could be speculative.
Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down
at least 25–40% in a year.
Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at
least 15–25% in a year.
* Applicable to select stocks in Asia/Australia/NZ
Note: expected return is reflective of a Medium Volatility
stock and should be assumed to adjust proportionately
with volatility risk
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following
adjustments made:
Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS
impairments & IFRS interest expense
Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals,
appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority
interests
EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*
ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average
total assets
ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of
shares
All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are
modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting
Standards).
Recommendation proportions for quarter ending 31 March 2023
AU/NZ Asia USA
Outperform 56.13% 64.77% 64.49% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 2.51% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 37.74% 23.98% 32.71% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 1.83% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 6.13% 11.26% 2.80% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Company-Specific Disclosures
Company Name Disclosure
Santos (STO AU)
Outperform
12-month target: AUD10.00 - NAV
Valuation: AUD 10.00 - DCF (WACC
10.5%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.1%)
Price: AUD7.41
Macquarie Group Limited together with its affiliates owns a net long of 0.5% or more of the equity securities of Santos Ltd.
Macquarie Group Limited together with its affiliates beneficially owns 1% or more of the equity securities of Santos Ltd.
A reference to “Macquarie” is a reference to the entity within the Macquarie Group of companies (comprising Macquarie Group Limited and its worldwide affiliates
and subsidiaries) that is relevant to this disclosure. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available publicly at
www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Clients receiving this report can additionally access previous recommendations (from the year prior to publication of this report)
issued by this report’s author at https://www.macquarieinsights.com.
Recommendation history
Company name Date Recommendation Target price
Santos  (STO AU) 29-Jun-2023 Outperform AUD 10.00
5-Jun-2023 Outperform AUD 10.10
25-May-2023 Outperform AUD 10.05
20-Apr-2023 Outperform AUD 9.95
6-Apr-2023 Outperform AUD 9.90
8-Mar-2023 Outperform AUD 10.00
23-Feb-2023 Outperform AUD 10.25
9-Feb-2023 Outperform AUD 10.30
19-Jan-2023 Outperform AUD 10.00
17-Jan-2023 Outperform AUD 10.30
7-Dec-2022 Outperform AUD 10.00
10-Nov-2022 Outperform AUD 9.90
29 June 2023 7
Macquarie Equity Research Santos
20-Oct-2022 Outperform AUD 10.00
15-Sep-2022 Outperform AUD 10.60
18-Aug-2022 Outperform AUD 10.40
6-Aug-2022 Outperform AUD 10.00
21-Jul-2022 Outperform AUD 10.05
5-Jul-2022 Outperform AUD 11.00
22-Jun-2022 Outperform AUD 10.50
10-Jun-2022 Outperform AUD 10.30
17-May-2022 Outperform AUD 10.00
25-Mar-2022 Outperform AUD 10.50
11-Mar-2022 Outperform AUD 10.00
17-Feb-2022 Outperform AUD 9.30
21-Jan-2022 Outperform AUD 9.40
14-Dec-2021 Outperform AUD 8.00
23-Apr-2021 Neutral AUD 7.50
31-Mar-2021 Neutral AUD 7.75
26-Mar-2021 Neutral AUD 7.50
6-Mar-2021 Neutral AUD 7.00
19-Feb-2021 Neutral AUD 6.85
8-Feb-2021 Neutral AUD 6.60
22-Jan-2021 Neutral AUD 6.55
15-Jan-2021 Neutral AUD 6.80
7-Dec-2020 Neutral AUD 6.07
2-Dec-2020 Neutral AUD 6.25
22-Oct-2020 Neutral AUD 5.50
2-Oct-2020 Neutral AUD 5.45
22-Sep-2020 Neutral AUD 5.40
18-Sep-2020 Neutral AUD 5.50
8-Sep-2020 Neutral AUD 6.00
21-Aug-2020 Neutral AUD 5.80
8-Aug-2020 Neutral AUD 5.70
24-Jul-2020 Neutral AUD 5.80
30-Jun-2020 Neutral AUD 5.50
Sensitivity analysis:
Clients receiving this report can request access to a model which allows for further in-depth analysis of the assumptions used, and recommendations made, by the author
relating to the subject companies covered. Contact https://www.macquarieinsights.com/contacts for access requests.
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The views were reached independently, without any attempt of influence from anyone outside of Macquarie’s Research business. Any and all opinions expressed have a
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29 June 2023 8
Macquarie Equity Research Santos
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