Assignment ECX 1200
Nikhil Damodaran
Due: 03 May 2024, 11:55 pm
Instructions
• Word limit: 1500 words
• All submissions to be done on moodle. Late assignments will not be accepted. Please
apply for Special Consideration if for some documented reason you cannot submit by due
date.
• The assignment is marked out of 15.
• There are two parts to each question (a) content and (b) presentation. Content is 80%
of the total grade for each question and presentation is the remaining 20%. Presentation
is important and if the assignment is not presented well, you will not get the 20% slated
for presentation.
• Content : The idea of each task is to make you:
(a) Find the correct data. This helps you apply the concepts we used in the first part
of the course in an real time data macro data anlaysis exercise.
(a.1) Please make sure that you specifically find the correct data and use them to
build the arguments.
(a.2) The data is easily available in Australian Bureau of Statistics website. The links
are also provided in the question.
(a.3) The key is to identify the correct file for each task. Use lecture notes for guidance
or ask me or your tutors for clarification.
(b) The second aim of the content part is to learn how to correctly visualize the data
and interpret the findings.
(b.1) This is critical learning and you have to choose the right plots to visualize the
data.
(b.2 When the analysis requires external sources or discussion, please adequately cite
sources. If it is a conjecture, please write it explicitly.
• Presentation: The figures should be self sufficient i.e. have x-axis and y-axis marked,
have a title, legends and a source right under the figure. You can also put some notes
under the figure which will help the reader come to the same conclusions as you have in
your assignment.
• Replication file: All the data that you use should be in a single excel file with sheets. You
can be asked for this file later. Anyone should be able to obtain your results using the
file that you upload.
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• Monash University and the teaching staff take academic integrity seriously. Plagiarism
and collusion are unacceptable. Further details can be found in the subject guide. All
submissions will automatically go through Turnit-in software. Since the questions that I
prepare require you to engage with the data, there is very little possibility of plagiarism.
• Submission: You may use any software for data visualization, but all the solution to the
assignment should be typed up in word alongwith the figures. The formatting should
be consistent presentable. Submission requires you to convert the word to PDF before
submission. Word submissions are likely to lose their formatting properties on moodle
and hence you lose presentation credits.
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Gross Domestic Product
1. Download the data for Nominal and Real GDP for Australia from the Australian Bureau
of Statistics website. Using this table will narrow your search: Table 1: Key National
Accounts Aggregates. Plot the Nominal GDP for Australia and the Real GDP for Aus-
tralia. What can you tell us about the real GDP for the 70s and the nominal GDP for the
70s. Why do you observe the difference between the two? Hint : The data for nominal
and real GDP will be in Australian Dollars ($ million). (2 point)
2. There are three kinds of measure for Real GDP. These are labeled “series types” in the
excel file corresponding to Table 1. Plot on a single figure the the real GDP for Australia
when the series type is “Original” and “Seasonally Adjusted”. What is the reason for the
difference? (1 point)
3. Calculate the year-on-year growth rate using the seasonally adjusted RGDP for Australia
for the entire sample. Plot these year on year growth in a figure. Do your own research
and provide some reasons for the long-term slowdown for Australia. When using evidence
to substantiate your arguments, cite the source appropriately. When unsure, it is always
best to provide more evidence. (1 point)
4. Calculate the annualized growth rate for the same series. Now plot the year-on-year and
annualized growth rate in a same figure. What do you notice about the difference between
the two estimates? What are the reasons for the difference? (1 point)
Unemployment
5. Download the labour force statistic for Australia from the ABS website: Table 1. Labour
force status by Sex, Australia - Trend, Seasonally adjusted and Original. Plot the labor
force participation rate for Australia (persons). Be careful and use the seasonally adjusted
measure for labor force. What are the striking features of this figure? Describe any three.
(1 point)
6. Plot the year on year growth in labor force participation rate for persons. What was the
number for Feb 2024? Give the rate of growth up to 3 decimal places. What do these
figures for October tell us about the long run trend of participation rate? (1 point)
7. Plot the unemployment rate for Australia from Feb 1978 to October 2023. What is the
average monthly unemployment rate for the last 24 months? Is this high or lower than
the sample average? What does this imply? (1 point)
8. What is the general trend in unemployment, if any? What are the reasons for the trend?
Do your own research and provide some reasons for the long-term trends for unemploy-
ment in Australia. (1 point)
9. Plot the unemployment rate for only full time workers on top of the unemployment rate
plotted earlier. The new rate refers to the category of unemployed workers who are
looking for full-time work. What is the average monthly unemployment rate for the last
24 months? How do you interpret this number and what is your explanation for the gap
between this and the unemployment numbers? (1 point)
10. Download the duration statistics for Australia from the ABS website: Table 14a. Unem-
ployed persons by duration of job search and sex. Plot the median duration of job search
for persons, male and females. Make sure you plot the de-seasonalized version of the
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statistic. What do you observe and what do you think are the reasons for the trend? Do
your own research and provide some reasons for the long-term trends for different gender
groups in Australia. (Bonus)1
Inflation
11. Download the labour force statistic for Australia from the ABS website: TABLES 1 and 2.
CPI: All Groups, Index Numbers and Percentage Changes. Plot the CPI based inflation
for Australia since Q3 1949. Is there evidence of a falling inflation over the long term?
Why do you think this is true? If yes, are we richer than our great grandparents? Can
you extend a counter-argument and reason it with the same data? (2.5 points)
12. Let us break this aggregate CPI down into its component parts to understand which are
the commodity blocks which are causing inflation. You have access to monthly inflation
since Sept 2017 for all components of CPI given in TABLE 1. Monthly CPI Indicator: All
groups, Groups, select Expenditure classes and Analytical series, Australia. Plot a figure
which explains the difference in total CPI inflation based on its component differences
for Feb 2024, 2023 and 2022. On this basis of your plot, provide three insights which
according to you explain the recent inflation episode based on the component inflation.
(2.5 points)
1If you do this question reasonably, then you can fill up your missed attendance for tutorials at the end of
the semester. Attempt it just in case you need the credit.