R代写-ST6009
时间:2021-07-21
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ST6009 Application of Core Technical
Research Methodologies in Actuarial Science

Guideline Document – 2020/21


1 – Introduction
The purpose of this document is to give an overview on the delivery of the minor thesis module ST6009
in academic year 2020/21 and on how this module will form part of study toward the award of
Master’s Degree in Actuarial Science at UCC. A number of other important pieces of supplemental
information are also provided in this document. Please read this document carefully and use it as a
guidance source as you complete study of, and examination in, the minor thesis module ST6009 during
the summer.

This document aims to be prescriptive in setting out expectations and agendas for the delivery, report
& presentation submission and examination of the minor thesis module ST6009. This is to ensure that
everyone knows what is required of them and what to expect. The goal is also to make the research
project interesting, practically relevant and actuarially focused.

2 – University Requirements
You should familiarise yourself with the UCC Book of Modules’ entry for module ST6009 and the
Marks & Standards requirements relating to MSc Actuarial Science at UCC as below:

Book of Modules Entry:
ST6009 Application of Core Technical Research Methodologies in
Actuarial Science

Module Objective: To read, understand and review selected literature and use core technical
principles to analyse selected problems, specific to the insurance and / or financial services
industry, and produce independent written and oral reports thereon.

Module Content: Actuarial Control Cycle; Statistical Analysis; Reporting Writing Skills;
Presentation Skills; Spreadsheet Skills; Programming Skills; Literature Review; Professional
Actuarial Standards; Students will be required to keep and submit a learning journal.

Learning Outcomes: On successful completion of this module, students should be able to:
▪ Gather and summarize scientific and industry literature related to the principal
methodologies of the Core Technical syllabi of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries;
▪ Comprehend the Actuarial Control Cycle and apply it generally;
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▪ Use Excel and R to build actuarial models to analyse datasets;
▪ Document and criticize all models used and assumptions made;
▪ Transfer learning skills from the academic to the professional actuarial environment;
▪ Evaluate and interpret results and outputs generated;
▪ Prepare a written and oral report to a standard appropriate to a student with a good
knowledge of all Core Technical methodologies;
▪ Communicate findings to a technical and non-technical audience and answer questions
and address comments made by those audiences;
▪ Demonstrate the range of skills required of a competent practising actuary and the
professional standards required by the Actuarial Profession.
Assessment: Total Marks 400: Continuous Assessment 400 marks (Portfolio Report 280 marks;
Oral Presentation of Findings 60 marks; Learning Journal 60 marks).

Compulsory Elements: Continuous Assessment.

Penalties (for late submission of Course/Project Work etc.): Work which is submitted
late shall be assigned a mark of zero (or a Fail Judgement in the case of Pass/Fail modules).

Pass Standard and any Special Requirements for Passing Module: 40% In addition,
students must achieve a pass in each element of continuous assessment (portfolio report, Oral
Presentation, Learning Journal).

Formal Written Examination: No Formal Written Examination.

Requirements for Supplemental Examination: No Supplemental Examination.


3 – ST6009 Project Description 2020/21

Pension Decumulation Dashboards: Using R and R Shiny to model and
visualise retirement decumulation for both individual members and large
(company and/or country) datasets.

The ways that various countries provide for retirement is a complex and evolving thing. Given
increasing life expectancy in recent years it is becoming increasingly challenging to provide for a
sustainable and adequate retirement. Many countries provide a basic state pension coupled with offering
tax incentives for company sponsored pension schemes. Many people aim to save through other means
(for example they may buy an additional investment property) outside of the pension system.
Sometimes the state pension, company pension and private savings are called the three pillars of
retirement saving.
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Actuaries have played an integral role in the running of company pension schemes for decades and
calculations such as calculating solvency levels and contribution levels for Defined Benefit Pension
schemes has been a key role of an Actuary. For Defined Contribution Pension Schemes typically most
people bought annuities at retirement and carrying out various actuarial calculations relating to annuities
was a role of an Actuary in a Life assurance company.
The pension system is evolving however caused in part by employers no longer being able or willing
to accept the cost and risk of underwriting deficits in defined benefit schemes and this has resulted in
the emergence and dominance of defined contribution pension schemes. Increasing life expectancy and
lower bond yields increasing the cost of annuities has led to many members of defined contribution
pension schemes no longer wishing to purchase an annuity at the point of retirement (say age 65) as
they are perceived to be very costly.
Many countries now allow members of company pension schemes to go into “drawdown” at retirement
where rather than purchasing an annuity, the person manages their retirement fund (sometimes called
retirement ‘pot’) in retirement, choosing where it is invested and how much to withdraw out of the
retirement fund periodically. This introduces the risk that the person will run out of money; and also
the risk that the person will draw down too little due to a risk of running out of money but be left with
an impoverished retirement.
Decumulation is the method through which a person accesses their retirement benefits. So for example
one persons decumulation method may be to buy an annuity. Another person’s decumulation method
may be to go into drawdown. Another person’s decumulation method may be to go into drawdown at
age 65 but if they are still alive at age 80, buy an annuity. In this project, while we will be looking at
various methods of decumulation, our key focus will be on drawdown.
Given that drawdown is still a relatively new concept (in Ireland and UK) many people don’t fully
understand the risks that it entails (i.e. balancing running out of money with not running out of money
but having an impoverished retirement). Therefore the ST6009 project aims to use R and R Shiny to
create models that visualises these risks so that a person about to retire (say at age 65) can play around
with the model and it provides insights into how his/her drawdown might look like.
In addition, we will aim to use company and/or country datasets with R and R Shiny to visualise on a
macro level any insights regarding how populations may change and how this may impact pensions in
the future. (Population projections created by the late Hans Rosling will be shown in class 1 for
inspiration). As a young actuarial student you will be expected to harness the power and capabilities of
R and R shiny (particularly its strengths in visualisations) to provide insights to pensions – both for
individual members and for policymakers. You can get datasets at mortality.org but the student is also
encouraged to seek out their own datasets if possible.
The R programming language is relatively new to the IFoA syllabus and typically used in the context
of non-life insurance (rather than life and pensions). Using R and R shiny therefore to provide insights
into pensions is therefore a relatively new concept. Your supervisor will provide guidance and insights
into the pensions industry and pension decumulation and drawdown but the work on R that you have
already done as part of your MSc, coupled with self-learning over the summer on R Shiny will drive
the creation of your R Shiny model and report.
As part of the project you are expected to create your own R Shiny model as well as exploring what
other R or R Shiny models may be publicly available for retirement decumulation.
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Some General Guidance

All students enrolling for ST6009 will work on this problem. There will be weekly meetings.
While it is anticipated that students will discuss among themselves, students will have
individual responsibilities for presentations (oral and written). Evidence of copying, will likely
result in marks for written reports being highly discounted [user and supplier will be affected].
Students will be guided on their work and will be given feedback on an interim report and oral.
There will be an emphasis on students ability to demonstrate why particular tools were selected
for the analysis. It will also be important that students demonstrate in the oral an adequate
understanding of the methods used, including important assumptions and limitations involved.
It is critical that students demonstrate strong communication skills to present actuarial
professional work to audience with different background.


















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4 – ST6009 Schedule*

Date Time Event
Friday May 28 10am Intro meeting giving a flavour of the project and explanation of weekly
classes where you are expected to contribute each week
Friday July 16



23:59



Submission of Interim Report and Powerpoint presentation
Also upload materials to an individual sharepoint project folder that you
will be given access to.
Friday July 30 * 23:59 Submission of Final Report, Powerpoint Presentation & Learning Journal:
electronic copies of both the written report and the learning journal

Also upload materials to an individual sharepoint project folder that you
will be given access to.
August 2-6 * TBA Oral Presentation
August 20 * 11:00 Re-submit corrections/amendments, if required

*These times are still subject to change until the Student Records and Examinations Office confirm
University Examination Board dates. Therefore, please consider them as provisional.

*Please note that last three dates above are subject to change as the MSc class has a PA6007 exam in
August (but we have yet to learn the exact date of that exam) and the class has asked if possible to try
to allow some gap between deadlines. Therefore the dates above are subject to slight change and the
dates will be finalised as soon as we know the date for the PA6007 exam but please work towards
these dates for now.
Please be aware that there is absolutely no flexibility to extend these deadlines and that written or
oral work submitted after these times and dates will be awarded a mark of zero with the student not
then being eligible for the Master’s Degree Award. Supervision will consist of regular meetings with
staff and you must be available and participate in those meetings.

The construction of the written report must begin from early June! The written report needs to be
worked on throughout and there will be a number of targets set for students in relation to drafts of
the written report. The mark for the written report will reflect in part each student’s performance in
meeting these targets.

Your supervisor will be available at agreed times to give you guidance on your progress with module
ST6009. There will be a weekly meetings on a Friday and these will be communicated via Canvas but
from time to time additional dates will be added. Meeting times and locations and other information
pertaining to module ST6009 will be communicated via Canvas.



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5 – ST6009 Written Report, Oral Presentation &
Learning Journal

Written Report:

Overview:
Due to the current (Covd’19) circumstances, you are required to submit electronic copies of your
ST6009 written report to the ST6009 project co-ordinator before the date and time specified in Section
4. It is recommended that the written report be prepared in Microsoft Word with a final version also
converted to pdf format.

Your ST6009 written report must be arranged in the following order:

i) Title Page: Include the title of the report, the module code, the date of submission and your name
and UCC student id number.
ii) Signature / Declaration page: This should declare that you, and you alone, have completed the
report. The page should be signed by you.
iii) Dedication / Acknowledgement page (Optional)
iv) Abstract
v) Table of Contents
vi) List of Tables
vii) List of Figures
viii) Main Body of Text – see below for further comments.
ix) Appendices
x) Bibliography

Style:
A single font must be used throughout the report, the only exceptions being in tables, graphs, and
appendices. Headings may be bolded and no more than 2 points larger than the rest of the text. All
reports must have consistent margins of at least 1.25 inches at the top, bottom, left, and right edges
of the page. Page numbers must be placed at least one inch from the bottom of the page. The thesis
or report must be double-spaced or 1.5-spaced. Single spacing may be used only in the Table of
Contents, footnotes and endnotes, charts, graphs, tables, quotations, captions, glossary, appendices,
and bibliography.

The first page of every major section must begin on a new page. The first page of the main body of
text begins at Arabic numeral 1. All pages within the text must contain an Arabic page number,
bottom-centred, at least one inch from the bottom edge of the page. Beginning with the Abstract all
preliminary pages preceding the actual text must be numbered in lowercase Roman numerals; e.g.,
iii, iv, v, etc. These numerals must be centred under the text with at least one inch of space between
the number and the bottom of the page.
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The Table of Contents must be placed before the text and any lists of tables, figures, etc. It consists of
section titles, chapter titles, and as many or few subheadings as you feel are necessary. The section
and chapter titles listed on the Table of Contents must exactly match the titles as they appear within
the text. Chapters labelled in the Table of Contents with Arabic numbers (Chapter 3) must not lapse
into Roman numerals (Chapter III) when they appear again in the text. Page numbers for chapters are
right justified on the Table of Contents and preceded by a dot leader.

Structure of the Main Body of Text:
The main body of text will contain a number of sections corresponding to the analysis and research
work carried out. A rich literature review must be included in the main body of the text. Referencing
papers should be cited properly and correctly and listed in the Bibliography in the Harvard format.
There will be detailed comments on the structure and content required of each section of the main
body of text as the ST6009 project progresses.


Oral Presentation:

You are required to upload to your ST6009 folder a file of your oral presentation before the dates
specified in Section 4. We recommend that the oral presentation be prepared in Microsoft Power-
point.

The oral presentation should be 15 minutes and the main sections required in your presentation will
be detailed during the course of the project. Following the presentation, there will 10 – 15 minutes of
questions from staff, where you will be asked some theoretical questions based on your written
report, oral presentation and learning journal. This questioning will probe your understanding of the
approach and analysis undertaken.


Learning Journal:

You are required to complete a learning journal to chronicle your progress in module ST6009. Your
learning journal should be kept in the project folder and will be reviewed at various times during the
ST6009 project. You are required to finalize your learning journal prior to the date specified in Section
4. We recommend that your learning journal be prepared in Microsoft Word.

You should aim to have at least 3 entries in the journal per week. All entries should be date-listed and
give a summary of the steps carried out in the project. The learning journal should refer to any R code
you have developed. As you develop a model or a technique in R, create different versions thereof
and title each appropriately (e.g. “Model_Version1.2”). All such R code need to be submitted as part
of your final written reports. Name your R code file as “Code_for_XX” and your R outputs as
“Data_for_XX.RData”. You need to upload all the relevant files, including R codes and R outputs to the
project folder according to the deadlines listed in Section 4.

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The learning journal is aimed at helping students structure and record their project work in module
ST6009. Recording different versions of Excel spreadsheets (if any) and R code also allows you to trace
back steps involved should any errors arise.

6 – Some Closing Points

• The ST6009 project should reflect your own individual work. Recognising the fact that students will
at times be working together and sharing learning experiences, it should still be the case that your
written and oral work is your own and not copied from another student. Where written and oral
work makes reference to research papers, working party reports then such must be referenced
appropriately. Copying or plagiarism will not be tolerated and, where found, will incur significant
penalties and in extreme cases a module mark of 0 will be returned. There will be checks for both
copying and plagiarism by the External and Internal Examiners.

• Create regular back-ups of all aspects of your electronic work throughout the ST6009 project.
Accidents happen with files and USBs keys etc., so make sure you are prepared against any such
eventualities.

• Not all work will be prescribed in ST6009 to the same level as was done so in other ST6000
modules. At times only a generic overview will be given of what is required by students. This is
befitting a Level 9 module which should give scope for students to develop their own work and
ideas and to take responsibility for their own individual research.

• We especially make the point that in examining your work for module ST6009 we are looking for
evidence of originality of thought, of independent work, of the use of additional information
sources, and of an approach that integrates a wide range of appropriate material. In addition we
are looking to see reports and presentations which are well structured and present information in
a logical and concise manner. We will reward as such in the grading of ST6009 written and oral
work.

• Untidy work, lateness and missed deadlines will be penalised.

• Whilst all of the above may give the view that module ST6009 is heavily structured the intention is
to create such so that all students know what is expected of them. It obviously remains a key goal
of the module to present an enjoyable project, which builds on the concepts studied in Part 1 of
the programme and which gives student an idea of the working life of an actuary and the
professionalism required.

Best of luck with all aspects of module ST6009!























































































































































































































































































































































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