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程序代写案例-2STARTER
时间：2022-03-16
2STARTER VIDEO
tŚĂƚ Ɛ͛ŐŽŝŶŐŽŶŚĞƌĞ͍
Watch the video (right) on
YouTube
Question: ǁŚĂƚ͛ƐŚĂƉƉĞŶŝŶŐ
in the video, and what does it
tell us about decision-making
in organisations?
/͛ůůƚƌLJƚŽĚŽƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƚŚŝŶŐ͙
in the lecture
EXAM CASE STUDY
Provisional ʹ subject to confirmation
We will use this case
study in the exam
tĞ͛ůůĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝƚŶĞdžƚ
week ʹ read it before
then
3
4
3TECHNICAL WORKSHOP UPDATE
tĞĞŬϴƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉĐŽŵŝŶŐůĂƚĞƌƚŚŝƐǁĞĞŬ͙
Week 9 technical workshop (MCDA)
is online now
Week 8 technical workshop
(systems modelling) to follow later
this week
What do you want to cover in the
week 10 technical workshop?
WHAT WE LEARNED LAST WEEK
Systems Modelling Summary
You should understand the general idea of
systems thinking ʹ how does it offer a
different pattern of thought?
You should be able to create a baseline
systems model for an organisation or
business unit
You should be able to work through all the
modelling steps (including performance
measures!)
At the higher level, understand the different
applications of systems modelling
See week 8 tutorial
resources
+ technical workshop to follow
5
6
4HOW IS OPERATIONAL RESEARCH DONE?
a typical project process (?)
Problem
Situation X
Problem
Situation Y
is expressed in
facilitator and client
PSMs
leads to
ModellingDecisions
complex
situation
leads to
changes
involves
key slide!
LEARNING OUTCOMES
Multi-ƌŝƚĞƌŝĂĞĐŝƐŝŽŶŶĂůLJƐŝƐ;ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂů͕ŝŶŚƌŝƐ͛ǁŽƌĚƐͿ
Comprehension Demonstrate understanding of the theory and
techniques taught on the module. For example,
by explaining what is meant by systems thinking or
CATWOE analysis
Explain, for example, what the decision-making traps are,
and how MCDA can help avoid them.
Analysis Apply the theory and techniques taught on the
module to real-world situation. For example, by
showing how an OR practitioner would analyse a
real-world problem presented in a case study, or
by creating a CATWOE analysis for a fictional
business
Create an MCDA model for a short fictional case. Be able,
for example, to select and weight criteria at multiple levels
and explain why you made the technical choices you did.
Be able to identify examples of decision-making traps in a
case or article.
Critical
Evaluation
Present a critical discussion of the theory and
techniques taught on the module. For example,
by offering critique of a real-world OR project
presented in a case study, or by discussing the
pros and cons of a technique such as rich picturing
in the real-world context, based on your
experience of applying the techniques, ideas from
the literature and your own knowledge
Discuss the pros and cons of MCDA. Explain what the
limitations are, as well as the benefits. Offer a critical
discussion of a real-world decision-making process by
applying the concepts learned.
+ communication
How they apply to this
ǁĞĞŬ Ɛ͛ƚŽƉŝĐ
7
8
5DECISIONS ARE DIFFICULT
Decision analysis is needed more than ever
WHY?
WHY ARE DECISIONS DIFFICULT? (1)
Complexity and uncertainty
Some sources of complexity:
Business Environment: Organisations operate in
͚ĚĞŶƐĞůLJŝŶƚĞƌĐŽŶŶĞĐƚĞĚŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ͛;ZΘDͿŽĨ
interrelationships and dependencies
Technological revolution: Quantity of data and
speed of movement of information
Subjectivity: Globalisation has brought together
people from different cultural backgrounds with
different worldviews
Week 2
Reading
dŚĞ͚ŚĂŶŐĞKĨŐĞ͛
9
10
6WHY ARE DECISIONS DIFFICULT? (2)
Essential Reading ʹ The Decision-Making Traps
Hammond, Keeney, Raiffa͕͚dŚĞ,ŝĚĚĞŶ
dƌĂƉƐŝŶĞĐŝƐŝŽŶDĂŬŝŶŐ͕͛ ,ĂƌǀĂƌĚ
Business Review, Sep-Oct 1998
In addition, as human beings we are
bound by the way the human brain
works
This creates further challenges that
impact and distort our decision
making
The worst thing is: Many of us are not
even aware of these challenges or
͚ƚƌĂƉƐ͛͊
>Ğƚ Ɛ͛ĞdžƉůŽƌĞƚŚŝƐ
idea with an
ĂĐƚŝǀŝƚLJ͙
&ŽůůŽǁŚƌŝƐ͛ƐŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƚŝŽŶƐĐĂƌĞĨƵůůLJ
Log in Socrative when Chris tells
you to, and answer the 3 questions
Can you avoid the decision-making
traps?
DECISION-MAKING ACTIVITY
Can you avoid the decision-making traps?
2. Enter Room
Number 898902
11
12
7DECISION-MAKING ACTIVITY
>ĂƐƚzĞĂƌ Ɛ͛ZĞƐƵůƚƐ
The same question, framed
differently generates answers that
ĂƌĞƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚůLJĚŝĨĨĞƌĞŶƚ͙
WHAT ARE DECISION-MAKING TRAPS?
DĞŶƚĂů͚,ĞƵƌŝƐƚŝĐƐ͛
The Real
World
Heuristics
͞hŶĐŽŶƐĐŝŽƵƐƌŽƵƚŝŶĞƐƚŽ
cope with the complexity
ŝŶŚĞƌĞŶƚŝŶŵŽƐƚĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐ͟
ʹ Hammond et al
͞dŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐŽĨ͚ŵĂŬŝŶŐ
ƐĞŶƐĞ͕͛ ͚ŐĞƚƚŝŶŐƚŽŐƌŝƉƐ
ǁŝƚŚ͕͛ ƐŝŵƉůŝĨŝĐĂƚŝŽŶ͕
ĂƚƚĞŶƵĂƚŝŽŶ͟ʹ Chris
13
14
8 Can take the form of:
A statistic (as in the quiz)
A verbal comment
ƉƌĞĐŽŶĐĞƉƚŝŽŶŽƌƐƚĞƌĞŽƚLJƉĞ͙
DECISION-MAKING TRAP 1
Anchoring
͞tŚĞŶĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌŝŶŐĂĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶ͕
the mind gives disproportionate
weight to the first information it
ƌĞĐĞŝǀĞƐ͟ʹ Hammond et al
ŝĂƐƚŽǁĂƌĚƐ͚ƐƚŝĐŬŝŶŐǁŝƚŚ͛
A long-term strategy
A member of staff
An investment position (below)
DECISION-MAKING TRAP 2
Status Quo
͞^ƚŝĐŬŝŶŐǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƐƚĂƚƵƐƋƵŽ
represents, in most cases, the
safer course because it puts us
ĂƚůĞƐƐƉƐLJĐŚŽůŽŐŝĐĂůƌŝƐŬ͟ʹ
Hammond et al
Ackoff ʹ ͞^ŝŶƐŽĨcommission vs.
sins of omission͟
15
16
9OTHER DECISION-MAKING TRAPS
From Hammond et al
The Sunk-Cost Trap
The Confirming-Evidence Trap
The Framing Trap
Estimating and Forecasting Traps
Forewarned is forearmed!
Ideas for guarding against these?
Learn about the traps and develop
awareness of the way we think
Employ tools to externalise and test our
thinking
One such tool is MCDA
MCDA model from week 9
technical workshop
INTRODUCTION TO MCDA
Basic Purpose
During an OR project, you may reach a point
where the client is faced with a set of
options
One approach is to compare each option
against an agreed set of criteria in order to
select the most promising option
The criteria will be chosen by the client and
will reflect their values and aspirations
We call this approach Multi-Criteria Decision
Analysis (MCDA)
17
18
10
EXAMPLE
Anatomy Of An MCDA Model ʹ Factory Location Decision
Options Criteria
Weight
Scores Rank
Calcs
+ additional analyses?
MCDA PROCESS
6 Main Steps
Identify Options1
Select / Structure
Criteria2
Set Criteria Weights3
Score Options4
Analyse Results5
Conduct Sensitivity
Analysis6
19
20
11
IDENTIFY OPTIONS
Step 1
Option A Option B Option C Option D
Question: Where
should we hold the
company conference?
SELECT / STRUCTURE CRITERIA (1)
Step 2
Question: What criteria
might be relevant?
Catering?
Location?
Facilities?
21
22
12
SELECT / STRUCTURE CRITERIA (2)
Step 2
Cost of hiring the hotel
Transportation links
Quality and range of conference
facilities
Quality of accommodation
Quality of catering service
Staff experience and level of service
Availability of informal meeting
places
Overall feel of the general
environment
Location of Hotel
Environment
Transportation links (access)
Hotel Facilities
Staff
Conference rooms
Informal meeting places
Accommodation
Catering
Cost of hiring
Concept of
hierarchy /
levels
SET CRITERIA WEIGHTS
Step 3 Criteria 1st Level Weights 2nd Level Weights
Location 0.35
- Environment 0.5
- Access 0.5
Facilities 0.45
- Staff 0.1
- Conference rooms 0.3
- Meeting places 0.15
- Accommodation 0.2
- Catering 0.25
Costs 0.2
=1
=1
=1
23
24
13
SCORE EACH OPTION (1)
Step 4
Criteria A B C D
Location
- Environment 0 25 40 100
- Access 100 80 35 0
Facilities
- Staff 100 80 40 0
- Conference rooms 75 100 50 0
- Meeting places 25 100 0 75
- Accommodation 80 100 0 90
- Catering 60 70 0 100
Costs 5 0 100 60
SCORE EACH OPTION (2)
Step 4
Option A:
Location (2nd level):
0(0.5) + 100(0.5) = 50
Facilities (2nd level):
100(0.1)+75(0.3)+25(0.15)+80(0.2)60(
0.25) = 67.3
Cost:
N/A at 2nd level
Overall (1st level):
50(0.35) + 67.3(0.45) + 5(0.2) = 48.8
Easily done in Excel
-
25
26
14
ANALYSE RESULTS (1)
Step 5
Spot the calculation
error here? Compare
to spreadsheet on
my.wbs
ANALYSE RESULTS (2)
Step 5
Examining the 1st
Level Criteria
Option B performs
Well at a high cost
Option A has similar
Cost to B but loses
Out on facilities
Option D is good
All-round choice
Option C is cheap
But performs poorly
27
28
15
CONDUCT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Step 6
Experiment with different
weights and observe impact
05-08 Warm-Up Quiz
08-15 Intro From Chris
15-45 MCDA Activity
What Job To Do After Uni?
45-55 Feedback / Plenary
Something
ůƐĞ͙
Tic Tok
Star
TUTORIAL PLAN
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
+ attendance!
͞:Žď͟
After
Uni?
Financial
Analyst
Masters /
PHd?
Barista
29
30
16
WARM UP QUIZ
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
2. Enter Room
Number 898902
3-4 minutes!
31
2STARTER VIDEO
tŚĂƚ Ɛ͛ŐŽŝŶŐŽŶŚĞƌĞ͍
Watch the video (right) on
YouTube
Question: ǁŚĂƚ͛ƐŚĂƉƉĞŶŝŶŐ
in the video, and what does it
tell us about decision-making
in organisations?
/͛ůůƚƌLJƚŽĚŽƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƚŚŝŶŐ͙
in the lecture
EXAM CASE STUDY
Provisional ʹ subject to confirmation
We will use this case
study in the exam
tĞ͛ůůĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝƚŶĞdžƚ
week ʹ read it before
then
3
4
3TECHNICAL WORKSHOP UPDATE
tĞĞŬϴƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉĐŽŵŝŶŐůĂƚĞƌƚŚŝƐǁĞĞŬ͙
Week 9 technical workshop (MCDA)
is online now
Week 8 technical workshop
(systems modelling) to follow later
this week
What do you want to cover in the
week 10 technical workshop?
WHAT WE LEARNED LAST WEEK
Systems Modelling Summary
You should understand the general idea of
systems thinking ʹ how does it offer a
different pattern of thought?
You should be able to create a baseline
systems model for an organisation or
business unit
You should be able to work through all the
modelling steps (including performance
measures!)
At the higher level, understand the different
applications of systems modelling
See week 8 tutorial
resources
+ technical workshop to follow
5
6
4HOW IS OPERATIONAL RESEARCH DONE?
a typical project process (?)
Problem
Situation X
Problem
Situation Y
is expressed in
facilitator and client
PSMs
leads to
ModellingDecisions
complex
situation
leads to
changes
involves
key slide!
LEARNING OUTCOMES
Multi-ƌŝƚĞƌŝĂĞĐŝƐŝŽŶŶĂůLJƐŝƐ;ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂů͕ŝŶŚƌŝƐ͛ǁŽƌĚƐͿ
Comprehension Demonstrate understanding of the theory and
techniques taught on the module. For example,
by explaining what is meant by systems thinking or
CATWOE analysis
Explain, for example, what the decision-making traps are,
and how MCDA can help avoid them.
Analysis Apply the theory and techniques taught on the
module to real-world situation. For example, by
showing how an OR practitioner would analyse a
real-world problem presented in a case study, or
by creating a CATWOE analysis for a fictional
business
Create an MCDA model for a short fictional case. Be able,
for example, to select and weight criteria at multiple levels
and explain why you made the technical choices you did.
Be able to identify examples of decision-making traps in a
case or article.
Critical
Evaluation
Present a critical discussion of the theory and
techniques taught on the module. For example,
by offering critique of a real-world OR project
presented in a case study, or by discussing the
pros and cons of a technique such as rich picturing
in the real-world context, based on your
experience of applying the techniques, ideas from
the literature and your own knowledge
Discuss the pros and cons of MCDA. Explain what the
limitations are, as well as the benefits. Offer a critical
discussion of a real-world decision-making process by
applying the concepts learned.
+ communication
How they apply to this
ǁĞĞŬ Ɛ͛ƚŽƉŝĐ
7
8
5DECISIONS ARE DIFFICULT
Decision analysis is needed more than ever
WHY?
WHY ARE DECISIONS DIFFICULT? (1)
Complexity and uncertainty
Some sources of complexity:
Business Environment: Organisations operate in
͚ĚĞŶƐĞůLJŝŶƚĞƌĐŽŶŶĞĐƚĞĚŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ͛;ZΘDͿŽĨ
interrelationships and dependencies
Technological revolution: Quantity of data and
speed of movement of information
Subjectivity: Globalisation has brought together
people from different cultural backgrounds with
different worldviews
Week 2
Reading
dŚĞ͚ŚĂŶŐĞKĨŐĞ͛
9
10
6WHY ARE DECISIONS DIFFICULT? (2)
Essential Reading ʹ The Decision-Making Traps
Hammond, Keeney, Raiffa͕͚dŚĞ,ŝĚĚĞŶ
dƌĂƉƐŝŶĞĐŝƐŝŽŶDĂŬŝŶŐ͕͛ ,ĂƌǀĂƌĚ
Business Review, Sep-Oct 1998
In addition, as human beings we are
bound by the way the human brain
works
This creates further challenges that
impact and distort our decision
making
The worst thing is: Many of us are not
even aware of these challenges or
͚ƚƌĂƉƐ͛͊
>Ğƚ Ɛ͛ĞdžƉůŽƌĞƚŚŝƐ
idea with an
ĂĐƚŝǀŝƚLJ͙
&ŽůůŽǁŚƌŝƐ͛ƐŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƚŝŽŶƐĐĂƌĞĨƵůůLJ
Log in Socrative when Chris tells
you to, and answer the 3 questions
Can you avoid the decision-making
traps?
DECISION-MAKING ACTIVITY
Can you avoid the decision-making traps?
2. Enter Room
Number 898902
11
12
7DECISION-MAKING ACTIVITY
>ĂƐƚzĞĂƌ Ɛ͛ZĞƐƵůƚƐ
The same question, framed
differently generates answers that
ĂƌĞƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚůLJĚŝĨĨĞƌĞŶƚ͙
WHAT ARE DECISION-MAKING TRAPS?
DĞŶƚĂů͚,ĞƵƌŝƐƚŝĐƐ͛
The Real
World
Heuristics
͞hŶĐŽŶƐĐŝŽƵƐƌŽƵƚŝŶĞƐƚŽ
cope with the complexity
ŝŶŚĞƌĞŶƚŝŶŵŽƐƚĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐ͟
ʹ Hammond et al
͞dŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐŽĨ͚ŵĂŬŝŶŐ
ƐĞŶƐĞ͕͛ ͚ŐĞƚƚŝŶŐƚŽŐƌŝƉƐ
ǁŝƚŚ͕͛ ƐŝŵƉůŝĨŝĐĂƚŝŽŶ͕
ĂƚƚĞŶƵĂƚŝŽŶ͟ʹ Chris
13
14
8 Can take the form of:
A statistic (as in the quiz)
A verbal comment
ƉƌĞĐŽŶĐĞƉƚŝŽŶŽƌƐƚĞƌĞŽƚLJƉĞ͙
DECISION-MAKING TRAP 1
Anchoring
͞tŚĞŶĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌŝŶŐĂĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶ͕
the mind gives disproportionate
weight to the first information it
ƌĞĐĞŝǀĞƐ͟ʹ Hammond et al
ŝĂƐƚŽǁĂƌĚƐ͚ƐƚŝĐŬŝŶŐǁŝƚŚ͛
A long-term strategy
A member of staff
An investment position (below)
DECISION-MAKING TRAP 2
Status Quo
͞^ƚŝĐŬŝŶŐǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƐƚĂƚƵƐƋƵŽ
represents, in most cases, the
safer course because it puts us
ĂƚůĞƐƐƉƐLJĐŚŽůŽŐŝĐĂůƌŝƐŬ͟ʹ
Hammond et al
Ackoff ʹ ͞^ŝŶƐŽĨcommission vs.
sins of omission͟
15
16
9OTHER DECISION-MAKING TRAPS
From Hammond et al
The Sunk-Cost Trap
The Confirming-Evidence Trap
The Framing Trap
Estimating and Forecasting Traps
Forewarned is forearmed!
Ideas for guarding against these?
Learn about the traps and develop
awareness of the way we think
Employ tools to externalise and test our
thinking
One such tool is MCDA
MCDA model from week 9
technical workshop
INTRODUCTION TO MCDA
Basic Purpose
During an OR project, you may reach a point
where the client is faced with a set of
options
One approach is to compare each option
against an agreed set of criteria in order to
select the most promising option
The criteria will be chosen by the client and
will reflect their values and aspirations
We call this approach Multi-Criteria Decision
Analysis (MCDA)
17
18
10
EXAMPLE
Anatomy Of An MCDA Model ʹ Factory Location Decision
Options Criteria
Weight
Scores Rank
Calcs
+ additional analyses?
MCDA PROCESS
6 Main Steps
Identify Options1
Select / Structure
Criteria2
Set Criteria Weights3
Score Options4
Analyse Results5
Conduct Sensitivity
Analysis6
19
20
11
IDENTIFY OPTIONS
Step 1
Option A Option B Option C Option D
Question: Where
should we hold the
company conference?
SELECT / STRUCTURE CRITERIA (1)
Step 2
Question: What criteria
might be relevant?
Catering?
Location?
Facilities?
21
22
12
SELECT / STRUCTURE CRITERIA (2)
Step 2
Cost of hiring the hotel
Transportation links
Quality and range of conference
facilities
Quality of accommodation
Quality of catering service
Staff experience and level of service
Availability of informal meeting
places
Overall feel of the general
environment
Location of Hotel
Environment
Transportation links (access)
Hotel Facilities
Staff
Conference rooms
Informal meeting places
Accommodation
Catering
Cost of hiring
Concept of
hierarchy /
levels
SET CRITERIA WEIGHTS
Step 3 Criteria 1st Level Weights 2nd Level Weights
Location 0.35
- Environment 0.5
- Access 0.5
Facilities 0.45
- Staff 0.1
- Conference rooms 0.3
- Meeting places 0.15
- Accommodation 0.2
- Catering 0.25
Costs 0.2
=1
=1
=1
23
24
13
SCORE EACH OPTION (1)
Step 4
Criteria A B C D
Location
- Environment 0 25 40 100
- Access 100 80 35 0
Facilities
- Staff 100 80 40 0
- Conference rooms 75 100 50 0
- Meeting places 25 100 0 75
- Accommodation 80 100 0 90
- Catering 60 70 0 100
Costs 5 0 100 60
SCORE EACH OPTION (2)
Step 4
Option A:
Location (2nd level):
0(0.5) + 100(0.5) = 50
Facilities (2nd level):
100(0.1)+75(0.3)+25(0.15)+80(0.2)60(
0.25) = 67.3
Cost:
N/A at 2nd level
Overall (1st level):
50(0.35) + 67.3(0.45) + 5(0.2) = 48.8
Easily done in Excel
-
25
26
14
ANALYSE RESULTS (1)
Step 5
Spot the calculation
error here? Compare
to spreadsheet on
my.wbs
ANALYSE RESULTS (2)
Step 5
Examining the 1st
Level Criteria
Option B performs
Well at a high cost
Option A has similar
Cost to B but loses
Out on facilities
Option D is good
All-round choice
Option C is cheap
But performs poorly
27
28
15
CONDUCT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Step 6
Experiment with different
weights and observe impact
05-08 Warm-Up Quiz
08-15 Intro From Chris
15-45 MCDA Activity
What Job To Do After Uni?
45-55 Feedback / Plenary
Something
ůƐĞ͙
Tic Tok
Star
TUTORIAL PLAN
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
+ attendance!
͞:Žď͟
After
Uni?
Financial
Analyst
Masters /
PHd?
Barista
29
30
16
WARM UP QUIZ
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
2. Enter Room
Number 898902
3-4 minutes!
31
tŚĂƚ Ɛ͛ŐŽŝŶŐŽŶŚĞƌĞ͍
Watch the video (right) on
YouTube
Question: ǁŚĂƚ͛ƐŚĂƉƉĞŶŝŶŐ
in the video, and what does it
tell us about decision-making
in organisations?
/͛ůůƚƌLJƚŽĚŽƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƚŚŝŶŐ͙
in the lecture
EXAM CASE STUDY
Provisional ʹ subject to confirmation
We will use this case
study in the exam
tĞ͛ůůĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝƚŶĞdžƚ
week ʹ read it before
then
3
4
3TECHNICAL WORKSHOP UPDATE
tĞĞŬϴƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉĐŽŵŝŶŐůĂƚĞƌƚŚŝƐǁĞĞŬ͙
Week 9 technical workshop (MCDA)
is online now
Week 8 technical workshop
(systems modelling) to follow later
this week
What do you want to cover in the
week 10 technical workshop?
WHAT WE LEARNED LAST WEEK
Systems Modelling Summary
You should understand the general idea of
systems thinking ʹ how does it offer a
different pattern of thought?
You should be able to create a baseline
systems model for an organisation or
business unit
You should be able to work through all the
modelling steps (including performance
measures!)
At the higher level, understand the different
applications of systems modelling
See week 8 tutorial
resources
+ technical workshop to follow
5
6
4HOW IS OPERATIONAL RESEARCH DONE?
a typical project process (?)
Problem
Situation X
Problem
Situation Y
is expressed in
facilitator and client
PSMs
leads to
ModellingDecisions
complex
situation
leads to
changes
involves
key slide!
LEARNING OUTCOMES
Multi-ƌŝƚĞƌŝĂĞĐŝƐŝŽŶŶĂůLJƐŝƐ;ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂů͕ŝŶŚƌŝƐ͛ǁŽƌĚƐͿ
Comprehension Demonstrate understanding of the theory and
techniques taught on the module. For example,
by explaining what is meant by systems thinking or
CATWOE analysis
Explain, for example, what the decision-making traps are,
and how MCDA can help avoid them.
Analysis Apply the theory and techniques taught on the
module to real-world situation. For example, by
showing how an OR practitioner would analyse a
real-world problem presented in a case study, or
by creating a CATWOE analysis for a fictional
business
Create an MCDA model for a short fictional case. Be able,
for example, to select and weight criteria at multiple levels
and explain why you made the technical choices you did.
Be able to identify examples of decision-making traps in a
case or article.
Critical
Evaluation
Present a critical discussion of the theory and
techniques taught on the module. For example,
by offering critique of a real-world OR project
presented in a case study, or by discussing the
pros and cons of a technique such as rich picturing
in the real-world context, based on your
experience of applying the techniques, ideas from
the literature and your own knowledge
Discuss the pros and cons of MCDA. Explain what the
limitations are, as well as the benefits. Offer a critical
discussion of a real-world decision-making process by
applying the concepts learned.
+ communication
How they apply to this
ǁĞĞŬ Ɛ͛ƚŽƉŝĐ
7
8
5DECISIONS ARE DIFFICULT
Decision analysis is needed more than ever
WHY?
WHY ARE DECISIONS DIFFICULT? (1)
Complexity and uncertainty
Some sources of complexity:
Business Environment: Organisations operate in
͚ĚĞŶƐĞůLJŝŶƚĞƌĐŽŶŶĞĐƚĞĚŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ͛;ZΘDͿŽĨ
interrelationships and dependencies
Technological revolution: Quantity of data and
speed of movement of information
Subjectivity: Globalisation has brought together
people from different cultural backgrounds with
different worldviews
Week 2
Reading
dŚĞ͚ŚĂŶŐĞKĨŐĞ͛
9
10
6WHY ARE DECISIONS DIFFICULT? (2)
Essential Reading ʹ The Decision-Making Traps
Hammond, Keeney, Raiffa͕͚dŚĞ,ŝĚĚĞŶ
dƌĂƉƐŝŶĞĐŝƐŝŽŶDĂŬŝŶŐ͕͛ ,ĂƌǀĂƌĚ
Business Review, Sep-Oct 1998
In addition, as human beings we are
bound by the way the human brain
works
This creates further challenges that
impact and distort our decision
making
The worst thing is: Many of us are not
even aware of these challenges or
͚ƚƌĂƉƐ͛͊
>Ğƚ Ɛ͛ĞdžƉůŽƌĞƚŚŝƐ
idea with an
ĂĐƚŝǀŝƚLJ͙
&ŽůůŽǁŚƌŝƐ͛ƐŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƚŝŽŶƐĐĂƌĞĨƵůůLJ
Log in Socrative when Chris tells
you to, and answer the 3 questions
Can you avoid the decision-making
traps?
DECISION-MAKING ACTIVITY
Can you avoid the decision-making traps?
2. Enter Room
Number 898902
11
12
7DECISION-MAKING ACTIVITY
>ĂƐƚzĞĂƌ Ɛ͛ZĞƐƵůƚƐ
The same question, framed
differently generates answers that
ĂƌĞƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚůLJĚŝĨĨĞƌĞŶƚ͙
WHAT ARE DECISION-MAKING TRAPS?
DĞŶƚĂů͚,ĞƵƌŝƐƚŝĐƐ͛
The Real
World
Heuristics
͞hŶĐŽŶƐĐŝŽƵƐƌŽƵƚŝŶĞƐƚŽ
cope with the complexity
ŝŶŚĞƌĞŶƚŝŶŵŽƐƚĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐ͟
ʹ Hammond et al
͞dŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐŽĨ͚ŵĂŬŝŶŐ
ƐĞŶƐĞ͕͛ ͚ŐĞƚƚŝŶŐƚŽŐƌŝƉƐ
ǁŝƚŚ͕͛ ƐŝŵƉůŝĨŝĐĂƚŝŽŶ͕
ĂƚƚĞŶƵĂƚŝŽŶ͟ʹ Chris
13
14
8 Can take the form of:
A statistic (as in the quiz)
A verbal comment
ƉƌĞĐŽŶĐĞƉƚŝŽŶŽƌƐƚĞƌĞŽƚLJƉĞ͙
DECISION-MAKING TRAP 1
Anchoring
͞tŚĞŶĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌŝŶŐĂĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶ͕
the mind gives disproportionate
weight to the first information it
ƌĞĐĞŝǀĞƐ͟ʹ Hammond et al
ŝĂƐƚŽǁĂƌĚƐ͚ƐƚŝĐŬŝŶŐǁŝƚŚ͛
A long-term strategy
A member of staff
An investment position (below)
DECISION-MAKING TRAP 2
Status Quo
͞^ƚŝĐŬŝŶŐǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƐƚĂƚƵƐƋƵŽ
represents, in most cases, the
safer course because it puts us
ĂƚůĞƐƐƉƐLJĐŚŽůŽŐŝĐĂůƌŝƐŬ͟ʹ
Hammond et al
Ackoff ʹ ͞^ŝŶƐŽĨcommission vs.
sins of omission͟
15
16
9OTHER DECISION-MAKING TRAPS
From Hammond et al
The Sunk-Cost Trap
The Confirming-Evidence Trap
The Framing Trap
Estimating and Forecasting Traps
Forewarned is forearmed!
Ideas for guarding against these?
Learn about the traps and develop
awareness of the way we think
Employ tools to externalise and test our
thinking
One such tool is MCDA
MCDA model from week 9
technical workshop
INTRODUCTION TO MCDA
Basic Purpose
During an OR project, you may reach a point
where the client is faced with a set of
options
One approach is to compare each option
against an agreed set of criteria in order to
select the most promising option
The criteria will be chosen by the client and
will reflect their values and aspirations
We call this approach Multi-Criteria Decision
Analysis (MCDA)
17
18
10
EXAMPLE
Anatomy Of An MCDA Model ʹ Factory Location Decision
Options Criteria
Weight
Scores Rank
Calcs
+ additional analyses?
MCDA PROCESS
6 Main Steps
Identify Options1
Select / Structure
Criteria2
Set Criteria Weights3
Score Options4
Analyse Results5
Conduct Sensitivity
Analysis6
19
20
11
IDENTIFY OPTIONS
Step 1
Option A Option B Option C Option D
Question: Where
should we hold the
company conference?
SELECT / STRUCTURE CRITERIA (1)
Step 2
Question: What criteria
might be relevant?
Catering?
Location?
Facilities?
21
22
12
SELECT / STRUCTURE CRITERIA (2)
Step 2
Cost of hiring the hotel
Transportation links
Quality and range of conference
facilities
Quality of accommodation
Quality of catering service
Staff experience and level of service
Availability of informal meeting
places
Overall feel of the general
environment
Location of Hotel
Environment
Transportation links (access)
Hotel Facilities
Staff
Conference rooms
Informal meeting places
Accommodation
Catering
Cost of hiring
Concept of
hierarchy /
levels
SET CRITERIA WEIGHTS
Step 3 Criteria 1st Level Weights 2nd Level Weights
Location 0.35
- Environment 0.5
- Access 0.5
Facilities 0.45
- Staff 0.1
- Conference rooms 0.3
- Meeting places 0.15
- Accommodation 0.2
- Catering 0.25
Costs 0.2
=1
=1
=1
23
24
13
SCORE EACH OPTION (1)
Step 4
Criteria A B C D
Location
- Environment 0 25 40 100
- Access 100 80 35 0
Facilities
- Staff 100 80 40 0
- Conference rooms 75 100 50 0
- Meeting places 25 100 0 75
- Accommodation 80 100 0 90
- Catering 60 70 0 100
Costs 5 0 100 60
SCORE EACH OPTION (2)
Step 4
Option A:
Location (2nd level):
0(0.5) + 100(0.5) = 50
Facilities (2nd level):
100(0.1)+75(0.3)+25(0.15)+80(0.2)60(
0.25) = 67.3
Cost:
N/A at 2nd level
Overall (1st level):
50(0.35) + 67.3(0.45) + 5(0.2) = 48.8
Easily done in Excel
-
25
26
14
ANALYSE RESULTS (1)
Step 5
Spot the calculation
error here? Compare
to spreadsheet on
my.wbs
ANALYSE RESULTS (2)
Step 5
Examining the 1st
Level Criteria
Option B performs
Well at a high cost
Option A has similar
Cost to B but loses
Out on facilities
Option D is good
All-round choice
Option C is cheap
But performs poorly
27
28
15
CONDUCT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Step 6
Experiment with different
weights and observe impact
05-08 Warm-Up Quiz
08-15 Intro From Chris
15-45 MCDA Activity
What Job To Do After Uni?
45-55 Feedback / Plenary
Something
ůƐĞ͙
Tic Tok
Star
TUTORIAL PLAN
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
+ attendance!
͞:Žď͟
After
Uni?
Financial
Analyst
Masters /
PHd?
Barista
29
30
16
WARM UP QUIZ
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
2. Enter Room
Number 898902
3-4 minutes!
31
2STARTER VIDEO
tŚĂƚ Ɛ͛ŐŽŝŶŐŽŶŚĞƌĞ͍
Watch the video (right) on
YouTube
Question: ǁŚĂƚ͛ƐŚĂƉƉĞŶŝŶŐ
in the video, and what does it
tell us about decision-making
in organisations?
/͛ůůƚƌLJƚŽĚŽƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƚŚŝŶŐ͙
in the lecture
EXAM CASE STUDY
Provisional ʹ subject to confirmation
We will use this case
study in the exam
tĞ͛ůůĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝƚŶĞdžƚ
week ʹ read it before
then
3
4
3TECHNICAL WORKSHOP UPDATE
tĞĞŬϴƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉĐŽŵŝŶŐůĂƚĞƌƚŚŝƐǁĞĞŬ͙
Week 9 technical workshop (MCDA)
is online now
Week 8 technical workshop
(systems modelling) to follow later
this week
What do you want to cover in the
week 10 technical workshop?
WHAT WE LEARNED LAST WEEK
Systems Modelling Summary
You should understand the general idea of
systems thinking ʹ how does it offer a
different pattern of thought?
You should be able to create a baseline
systems model for an organisation or
business unit
You should be able to work through all the
modelling steps (including performance
measures!)
At the higher level, understand the different
applications of systems modelling
See week 8 tutorial
resources
+ technical workshop to follow
5
6
4HOW IS OPERATIONAL RESEARCH DONE?
a typical project process (?)
Problem
Situation X
Problem
Situation Y
is expressed in
facilitator and client
PSMs
leads to
ModellingDecisions
complex
situation
leads to
changes
involves
key slide!
LEARNING OUTCOMES
Multi-ƌŝƚĞƌŝĂĞĐŝƐŝŽŶŶĂůLJƐŝƐ;ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂů͕ŝŶŚƌŝƐ͛ǁŽƌĚƐͿ
Comprehension Demonstrate understanding of the theory and
techniques taught on the module. For example,
by explaining what is meant by systems thinking or
CATWOE analysis
Explain, for example, what the decision-making traps are,
and how MCDA can help avoid them.
Analysis Apply the theory and techniques taught on the
module to real-world situation. For example, by
showing how an OR practitioner would analyse a
real-world problem presented in a case study, or
by creating a CATWOE analysis for a fictional
business
Create an MCDA model for a short fictional case. Be able,
for example, to select and weight criteria at multiple levels
and explain why you made the technical choices you did.
Be able to identify examples of decision-making traps in a
case or article.
Critical
Evaluation
Present a critical discussion of the theory and
techniques taught on the module. For example,
by offering critique of a real-world OR project
presented in a case study, or by discussing the
pros and cons of a technique such as rich picturing
in the real-world context, based on your
experience of applying the techniques, ideas from
the literature and your own knowledge
Discuss the pros and cons of MCDA. Explain what the
limitations are, as well as the benefits. Offer a critical
discussion of a real-world decision-making process by
applying the concepts learned.
+ communication
How they apply to this
ǁĞĞŬ Ɛ͛ƚŽƉŝĐ
7
8
5DECISIONS ARE DIFFICULT
Decision analysis is needed more than ever
WHY?
WHY ARE DECISIONS DIFFICULT? (1)
Complexity and uncertainty
Some sources of complexity:
Business Environment: Organisations operate in
͚ĚĞŶƐĞůLJŝŶƚĞƌĐŽŶŶĞĐƚĞĚŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ͛;ZΘDͿŽĨ
interrelationships and dependencies
Technological revolution: Quantity of data and
speed of movement of information
Subjectivity: Globalisation has brought together
people from different cultural backgrounds with
different worldviews
Week 2
Reading
dŚĞ͚ŚĂŶŐĞKĨŐĞ͛
9
10
6WHY ARE DECISIONS DIFFICULT? (2)
Essential Reading ʹ The Decision-Making Traps
Hammond, Keeney, Raiffa͕͚dŚĞ,ŝĚĚĞŶ
dƌĂƉƐŝŶĞĐŝƐŝŽŶDĂŬŝŶŐ͕͛ ,ĂƌǀĂƌĚ
Business Review, Sep-Oct 1998
In addition, as human beings we are
bound by the way the human brain
works
This creates further challenges that
impact and distort our decision
making
The worst thing is: Many of us are not
even aware of these challenges or
͚ƚƌĂƉƐ͛͊
>Ğƚ Ɛ͛ĞdžƉůŽƌĞƚŚŝƐ
idea with an
ĂĐƚŝǀŝƚLJ͙
&ŽůůŽǁŚƌŝƐ͛ƐŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƚŝŽŶƐĐĂƌĞĨƵůůLJ
Log in Socrative when Chris tells
you to, and answer the 3 questions
Can you avoid the decision-making
traps?
DECISION-MAKING ACTIVITY
Can you avoid the decision-making traps?
2. Enter Room
Number 898902
11
12
7DECISION-MAKING ACTIVITY
>ĂƐƚzĞĂƌ Ɛ͛ZĞƐƵůƚƐ
The same question, framed
differently generates answers that
ĂƌĞƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚůLJĚŝĨĨĞƌĞŶƚ͙
WHAT ARE DECISION-MAKING TRAPS?
DĞŶƚĂů͚,ĞƵƌŝƐƚŝĐƐ͛
The Real
World
Heuristics
͞hŶĐŽŶƐĐŝŽƵƐƌŽƵƚŝŶĞƐƚŽ
cope with the complexity
ŝŶŚĞƌĞŶƚŝŶŵŽƐƚĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐ͟
ʹ Hammond et al
͞dŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐŽĨ͚ŵĂŬŝŶŐ
ƐĞŶƐĞ͕͛ ͚ŐĞƚƚŝŶŐƚŽŐƌŝƉƐ
ǁŝƚŚ͕͛ ƐŝŵƉůŝĨŝĐĂƚŝŽŶ͕
ĂƚƚĞŶƵĂƚŝŽŶ͟ʹ Chris
13
14
8 Can take the form of:
A statistic (as in the quiz)
A verbal comment
ƉƌĞĐŽŶĐĞƉƚŝŽŶŽƌƐƚĞƌĞŽƚLJƉĞ͙
DECISION-MAKING TRAP 1
Anchoring
͞tŚĞŶĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌŝŶŐĂĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶ͕
the mind gives disproportionate
weight to the first information it
ƌĞĐĞŝǀĞƐ͟ʹ Hammond et al
ŝĂƐƚŽǁĂƌĚƐ͚ƐƚŝĐŬŝŶŐǁŝƚŚ͛
A long-term strategy
A member of staff
An investment position (below)
DECISION-MAKING TRAP 2
Status Quo
͞^ƚŝĐŬŝŶŐǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƐƚĂƚƵƐƋƵŽ
represents, in most cases, the
safer course because it puts us
ĂƚůĞƐƐƉƐLJĐŚŽůŽŐŝĐĂůƌŝƐŬ͟ʹ
Hammond et al
Ackoff ʹ ͞^ŝŶƐŽĨcommission vs.
sins of omission͟
15
16
9OTHER DECISION-MAKING TRAPS
From Hammond et al
The Sunk-Cost Trap
The Confirming-Evidence Trap
The Framing Trap
Estimating and Forecasting Traps
Forewarned is forearmed!
Ideas for guarding against these?
Learn about the traps and develop
awareness of the way we think
Employ tools to externalise and test our
thinking
One such tool is MCDA
MCDA model from week 9
technical workshop
INTRODUCTION TO MCDA
Basic Purpose
During an OR project, you may reach a point
where the client is faced with a set of
options
One approach is to compare each option
against an agreed set of criteria in order to
select the most promising option
The criteria will be chosen by the client and
will reflect their values and aspirations
We call this approach Multi-Criteria Decision
Analysis (MCDA)
17
18
10
EXAMPLE
Anatomy Of An MCDA Model ʹ Factory Location Decision
Options Criteria
Weight
Scores Rank
Calcs
+ additional analyses?
MCDA PROCESS
6 Main Steps
Identify Options1
Select / Structure
Criteria2
Set Criteria Weights3
Score Options4
Analyse Results5
Conduct Sensitivity
Analysis6
19
20
11
IDENTIFY OPTIONS
Step 1
Option A Option B Option C Option D
Question: Where
should we hold the
company conference?
SELECT / STRUCTURE CRITERIA (1)
Step 2
Question: What criteria
might be relevant?
Catering?
Location?
Facilities?
21
22
12
SELECT / STRUCTURE CRITERIA (2)
Step 2
Cost of hiring the hotel
Transportation links
Quality and range of conference
facilities
Quality of accommodation
Quality of catering service
Staff experience and level of service
Availability of informal meeting
places
Overall feel of the general
environment
Location of Hotel
Environment
Transportation links (access)
Hotel Facilities
Staff
Conference rooms
Informal meeting places
Accommodation
Catering
Cost of hiring
Concept of
hierarchy /
levels
SET CRITERIA WEIGHTS
Step 3 Criteria 1st Level Weights 2nd Level Weights
Location 0.35
- Environment 0.5
- Access 0.5
Facilities 0.45
- Staff 0.1
- Conference rooms 0.3
- Meeting places 0.15
- Accommodation 0.2
- Catering 0.25
Costs 0.2
=1
=1
=1
23
24
13
SCORE EACH OPTION (1)
Step 4
Criteria A B C D
Location
- Environment 0 25 40 100
- Access 100 80 35 0
Facilities
- Staff 100 80 40 0
- Conference rooms 75 100 50 0
- Meeting places 25 100 0 75
- Accommodation 80 100 0 90
- Catering 60 70 0 100
Costs 5 0 100 60
SCORE EACH OPTION (2)
Step 4
Option A:
Location (2nd level):
0(0.5) + 100(0.5) = 50
Facilities (2nd level):
100(0.1)+75(0.3)+25(0.15)+80(0.2)60(
0.25) = 67.3
Cost:
N/A at 2nd level
Overall (1st level):
50(0.35) + 67.3(0.45) + 5(0.2) = 48.8
Easily done in Excel
-
25
26
14
ANALYSE RESULTS (1)
Step 5
Spot the calculation
error here? Compare
to spreadsheet on
my.wbs
ANALYSE RESULTS (2)
Step 5
Examining the 1st
Level Criteria
Option B performs
Well at a high cost
Option A has similar
Cost to B but loses
Out on facilities
Option D is good
All-round choice
Option C is cheap
But performs poorly
27
28
15
CONDUCT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Step 6
Experiment with different
weights and observe impact
05-08 Warm-Up Quiz
08-15 Intro From Chris
15-45 MCDA Activity
What Job To Do After Uni?
45-55 Feedback / Plenary
Something
ůƐĞ͙
Tic Tok
Star
TUTORIAL PLAN
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
+ attendance!
͞:Žď͟
After
Uni?
Financial
Analyst
Masters /
PHd?
Barista
29
30
16
WARM UP QUIZ
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
2. Enter Room
Number 898902
3-4 minutes!
31
