程序代写案例-CO2
时间:2021-02-16
TRACTION DECARBONISATION NETWORK STRATEGY
INTERIM PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
Executive Summary
CO2
INTERIM PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE | Executive Summary| 02 |
Climate change is a real and growing threat. Every year, across the planet, weather records are broken, and we see more frequent extreme weather, from flooding to drought. It is
becoming increasingly urgent for countries and businesses across the world, to protect the planet for future generations.
In June 2019 the UK Government set out a legislative target to achieve ‘net zero’ greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. For rail specifically the Department for Transport (DfT) asked
the rail industry to explore whether it would be possible to remove all diesel-only trains from the network by 2040 in England and Wales. The Scottish Government also set a target to
decarbonise domestic passenger rail services by 2035.
The railway plays a vital role in supporting the economy and connecting communities across Britain. It is already the most environmentally friendly mode of public transport,
contributing less than one per cent of UK annual greenhouse gas emissions. Rail has the potential to move large volumes of people and goods reliably with zero carbon emissions with
current technology. We have a huge opportunity to play an important part in a green economic recovery following the Coronavirus pandemic and tackling climate change.
Today, traction energy accounts for the vast majority of rail’s carbon emissions. As our power supply comes from nuclear energy, it is logical that we immediately focus on reducing diesel
train usage on our network with the ultimate goal of removing them entirely.
Over the last year Network Rail has worked collaboratively with the rail industry to establish how we can best work together to achieve this. The result of this work is the Traction
Decarbonisation Network Strategy (TDNS) and I am delighted that we are now able to set out the different ways how we could minimise direct carbon emissions from trains.
This strategy sets out why decarbonising rail traction is so important and considers the three main ways of doing it - overhead electrification, battery and hydrogen fuel cells. It then
looks at every section of unelectrified line in the country to see where each solution can be most effectively used. While more work is still needed, in particular the development of
regional delivery plans, this strategy will support and inform policy and funding decisions on what needs to be achieved and when.
Carrying out this work in a way that is efficient and represents best possible value for money is essential. This strategy shows that the best way of doing this includes a long-term, stable
and efficient programme of electrification which will last for at least thirty years, alongside the introduction of new technology. If we can do this, I am confident that rail will play a vital
role in helping build Britain back better and achieve the Government’s commitment to achieve net zero by 2050.
Paul McMahon,
Managing director System Operator
FOREWORD
INTERIM PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE | Executive Summary| 03 |
Reducing carbon emissions in rail is critical. It brings benefits directly to the rail industry and, by decarbonising transport overall, important knock-on
benefits across the transport sector and wider economy.
These benefits can be organised into six key themes:
Emissions
Reduction
Surface Transport
Decarbonisation
Passenger and
Freight End User
Direct Rail
Benefits
Environmental
Benefits
Wider Economy
Benefits
Climate Change is a global
threat.
Paris Agreement has set
ambitious targets for global
average temperature rise.
Rail is already a green mode
of transport.
Potential to reduce overall
emissions from transport by
encouraging more people to
choose rail over other forms
of transport.
Reliability and resilience
need to be improved.
Capacity shortfall in some
areas of the network.
Rail requires significant
investment for ongoing
operations, maintenance
and renewals.
Cost efficiency is critical.
Introduction of ULEZ and
CAZ around the UK.
Strong focus on air quality
from local, regional and
national governments.
UK Net-Zero Target.
Getting to Net Zero requires
significant infrastructure
investment.
Net Zero GHG by 2050 for
UK as a whole.
Other national and regional
targets and aspirations for
pre 2050.
NR science-based target of
27.5% reduction fortraction
by 2029.
Modal shift from road and
air to rail.
Even better if rail itself is
decarbonised.
Additional investment
required to increase
capacity.
Improving resilience to allow
passengers and freight to
rely on rail.
Increasing capacity
improves customer
experience and
opportunities.
Achieving cost efficiency
provides sustainable pricing
for passengers, customers
and government.
Provide a longer-term
solution to air quality issues.
Support decision making
from rail industry Air Quality
Strategic Framework
for short-term solutions
required.
Traction decarbonisation
programme will require
skilled workers around the
UK to deliver infrastructure
and rolling stock.
Ending rail’s contribution
to emissions by removing
diesel trains.
Further minimizing carbon
emissions through optimised
cascade of the cleanest
compliant diesel trains.
Safety improvements for
users compared with roads.
Congestion reduction on
roads.
Road maintenance cost
savings benefits.
Cross-modal cost saving
with combined refuelling/
recharging infrastructure
Faster journeys.
Improved reliability.
Greater tonnes hauled in
same train paths.
Improved resilience through
electrifying diversionary
routes.
Reduced rolling stock
maintenance costs.
Reduced track access
charges.
Reduced fuel costs.
Longer-term air quality
solution for stations, depots
and freight.
Supporting rail industry Air
Quality Strategic Framework.
Noise reduction.
Increase jobs in design,
integration, management,
manufacturing and
construction.
“Level Up” economy through
job creation away from
London and South East.
The case for change
Strategic objectives
Strategic benefits
THE DECARBONISATION CHALLENGE
INTERIM PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE | Executive Summary| 04 |
The Rail Industry Decarbonisation Taskforce has identified three possible traction technologies which are sufficiently mature to replace diesel – battery, electric and hydrogen. Each of
these technologies has different technical capabilities which mean that not all are suitable for all types of rail services.
Battery and hydrogen technologies are
unsuitable for long-distance high-speed
and freight services as these services
have higher energy needs than battery
and hydrogen can provide.
Electric traction is incredibly versatile in
that it can successfully provide energy
for all types of journeys. But it relies on
fixed infrastructure to transmit electricity
and this infrastructure has a relatively
high capital cost compared with battery
and hydrogen technology.
These technical and cost implications
have been used to develop a ‘decision
tree’ to identify areas of the rail network
where one technology is most suitable.
For example, only electrification is
suitable for areas where trains travel
at more than 100mph or where there
are lots of freight services. Equally
the capital costs required to deliver
electrification mean that battery and
hydrogen may offer a better value for
money way of achieving a zero-carbon
railway in areas of the network where
fewer trains run.
MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS
Passenger
(75mph)
Passenger
(100mph)
Passenger
(125mph) Freight
BATTERY
ELECTRIC
HYDROGENH
INTERIM PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE | Executive Summary| 05 |
By applying this approach to the 15,400 single track kilometres (STK) of unelectrified rail network in Great
Britain, we have calculated a need to provide:
Of the 2,300 STKs where “multiple options” could be delivered, operational and economic analysis has
identified a further 1,340 STKs of electrification, battery operation over an additional 400 STKs and
hydrogen operation over an additional 400 STKs.
That leaves us with 260 STKs of infrastructure where no clear decision has yet been made but a likely
technology is identified within the TDNS National Recommendations document. Further work at a local
level will be needed to confirm this.
In some areas of the network which are particularly busy electrification may also represent the most
sensible option, even though it would be technically possible to use battery and hydrogen. These areas of
the network are identified as ‘multiple options’ where further economic and operational analysis is needed
before the best choice of technology can be decided.
?
Up to 100km
in length
Over 100km
in length
Reduced usage Reduced usage
Battery Hydrogen
Single option
High freght
volume
Operations
greater than
100mph
Electrification
Single option
Intensive use?
Captive fleet?
Multiple
options
Multiple option
Trains which
operate on the
electric network
(as diesels)
11,700 STKs of
electrification.
Battery operation over
400 STKs of infrastructure.
Hydrogen operation over
900 STKs of infrastructure.
2,300 STKs where there is
no clear technical choice.
Baseline ElectrificationThird Rail
(Future strategic work)
H
INTERIM PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE | Executive Summary| 06 |
FURTHER RECOMMENDATIONS
Projects and programmes which increase
capacity for passengers and/or freight
should continue in order to support
a modal shift to rail. These projects
and programmes could draw on the
strategic and economic benefits of
decarbonisation and modal shift in their
business case. This is especially true for
freight projects because of the significant
modal shift they deliver.
A stable and efficient programme of
traction decarbonisation is the most
efficient way for us to deliver this work and
will enable us to incorporate all the lessons
learned from previous electrification. This
programme is also likely to include interim
solutions to make the most effective
use of resources and keep disruption to
passengers and freight to a minimum,
while meeting emissions reduction targets.
This programme will be considered as part
of the TDNS programme business case.
CO2
Any proposed new railway should consider the need
to operate using zero carbon rolling stock (i.e. battery,
electric or hydrogen), in conjunction with the wider
network to which it is linked.
Battery and hydrogen train operations should now
start wherever this is possible to ensure standards
are developed, whole-system operational experience
is gained, and lessons are learned. That way, best
practice can be learned and embedded in good time.
From now on, diesel-only trains should
only be bought where there are clear
strategic and economic reasons for doing
so. Where this is necessary, only trains
where the possibility exists in future to
replace the diesel engines with a zero-
carbon alternative should be chosen.
Hybridisation and the use of multi-mode
trains offer an excellent opportunity
to progressively reduce emissions and
realise the benefits of electrification.
H
INTERIM PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE | Executive Summary| 07 |
ECONOMICS
The economic case considers the economic impact of minimising traction emissions and provides an indicative assessment of the net economic value from the different ways of doing
this. The results establish an initial, nationwide view of the potential costs and benefits from the recommendations. It should be stressed that this analysis provides an initial, limited
view of benefits and costs and has been based on a number of assumptions.
Aside from the significant environmental benefits of reducing rail-related carbon emissions, there are also a number of economic benefits that could be realised:
The economic analysis undertaken relates specifically to the costs and benefits we would expect to see from traction decarbonisation. It is likely, however, that as traction
decarbonisation projects or programmes are brought forward, they will have their scope enlarged to include other railway work that is needed. Working in this way helps to minimise
disruption to passengers and maximise overall efficiency. In those cases, we would expect both costs and benefits to be higher because more work is being carried out.
JOURNEY TIME
BENEFITS
PERFORMANCE
BENEFITS
CARBON REDUCTION
BENEFITS
ROAD DECONGESTION
BENEFITS
INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL
AND RENEWAL COSTS
INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINTENANCE
COSTS
DISRUPTION DURING
CONSTRUCTION
DISBENEFITS
TRAIN
MAINTENANCE
COSTS
TRAIN FUEL COSTS TRAIN LEASE COSTS
NETWORK RAIL
MAINTENANCE
COSTS
The value of journey time
savings from improvements
in the acceleration and
deceleration of trains.
The value of more reliable
passenger journeys due to
improved reliability of trains.
The value of reduced CO2
emissions emitted into the
atmosphere.
The value of reduced congestion
on the road network as more
people and organisations choose
rail over road.
A range of capital and renewals
costs over time, reflecting the
cost of overhead electrification,
hydrogen refuelling points, and
battery charging points.
The increased
maintenance cost of
additional overhead
electric wires.
The cost of increased
passenger journey
times from reduced
rail services during the
construction period for
new or upgraded rail
infrastructure.
Changes in maintenance
costs according to the
mileage covered by
each different type
of passenger train in
operation.
Changes in fuel costs
according to mileage and
consumption rate covered
by each type of passenger
train in operation.
Changes in lease costs
due to the different types
of passenger trains in
operation.
Changes in track
maintenance and
electrical asset
maintenance costs due
to the mileage covered
by each different type
of passenger train in
operation.
INTERIM PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE | Executive Summary| 08 |
TRACTION DECARBONISATION
PATHWAY
AVERAGE ANNUAL STKs
OVER PROGRAMME
MAXIMUM STKs IN
ANY ONE YEAR
Pathway 1 (-80%) 259 377
Pathway 2 (-95%) 303 447
Pathway 3 (Net-Zero by 2050) 355 691
Pathway 4 (Net-Zero by 2040) 658 922
Pathway 5 (Net-Zero by 2061) 303 447
Most of the railway in London and South East is already
electrified which means that most of this programme will
be delivered in other parts of the country, drawing on skills
and resources in those regions. The Eastern region has the
largest volume of electrification required, but there are
significant volumes in all regions outside the South.
With a total length of over 13,000 STKs in need of
electrification and recent supply chain activity average of
450 STKs per year having fallen to much lower levels, there
is a clear challenge to re-build our capability to efficiently
deliver electrification.
Analysis undertaken by RIA, shows that delivering 450
STK of electrification per year is within the capability of
the supply chain, assuming that activity is gradually built
up over several years and a commitment is made to a
stable and efficient programme of work. This stability is
critical to ensuring that jobs are retained, the need for
additional training is reduced and the programme is a
cost-effective solution.
A highly skilled and specialised workforce is also needed
to deliver this work, and this could be efficiently achieved
by employing specialist delivery teams that consistently
move from project to project, each delivering 75 to 100
STK/year.
Five different pathways for delivering decarbonisation have been developed. These help funders consider
the trade-offs which need to be made around the degree of decarbonisation achieved, the pace of delivery
and cost.
For all five pathways costs and benefits are broadly balanced over a ninety-year appraisal period and those
pathways which provide higher emissions reductions offer the best value for money when delivered over
a longer period.
All except pathway 4 are feasible based on the industry’s assessment of delivery capability. Further work is
being undertaken with RIA and the supply chain to validate this.
DELIVERY OPTIONS FOR CONSIDERATION
INTERIM PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE | Executive Summary| 09 |
Most capital expenditure arises from the cost of overhead electrification and to identify these costs we have assessed the complexity of the work to be undertaken on each part of the
network that needs to be electrified. This considers the length of the section, the engineering complexity (for example, tunnels and bridges), the economic cost of disruption while the work is
carried out and the likely duration of the project. Capital costs at this stage have been estimated using a wide total cost bracket spanning from £1m/STK to £2.5m/STK (2020 prices).
Capital cost of battery charging points and hydrogen refuelling locations were determined using preliminary estimates from RSSB’s T1199 project. These costs were then scaled
according to the number of battery and hydrogen trains required in the recommended areas.
Analysis of the recommendations suggests that between 3,600 and 3,800 electric and 150 and 200 battery and hydrogen trains will be required for the traction decarbonisation
recommendations but the need for interim solutions will likely increase the number of battery and hydrogen trains needed in the short-term. Around 650-700 freight trains will also be
required and are likely to be delivered as a mixture of electric and multi-mode vehicles.
The delivery of this strategy is subject to funding from HM Government, the Scottish Government, and the Welsh Government.
Priority decarbonisation projects and programmes will be decided by working with industry stakeholders and will be presented in the TDNS programme business case in October 2020.
The delivery of decarbonisation projects and programmes is devolved to Network Rail regions who are now working with Network Rail System Operator to begin to develop regional
traction decarbonisation strategies and identify early schemes to take forward.
Once decisions have been made to develop or deliver schemes, those projects will be governed by the RNEP and GRIP processes.
A further important consideration is that this decarbonisation programme will need careful integration with other major national programmes such as the Long-Term Deployment Plan
(Digital Railway), Northern Powerhouse Rail, High Speed Two and projects arising from the rail industry Air Quality Strategic Framework. The programme will be able to highlight areas of
potential conflict but further work will be required beyond October 2020 to resolve these issues and ensure all work is smoothly integrated and delivered as efficiently as possible.
DELIVERING TRACTION DECARBONISATION
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