FIRMS IN THE TWO-PERIOD FRAMEWORK CHAPTER 6 2BASICS Introduction Embed firms in two-period (multi-period) economy In each period t, representative firm produces according to a production technology Atf(kt, nt) nt: labor used for production kt: capital (“machines and equipment”) used for production At: total factor productivity A catch-all measure for level of sophistication of technology Real Business Cycle (RBC) view: the driving force behind the periodic ups and downs of macroeconomic activity (Chapter 14) For now, suppose At = 1 always (i.e., in both period 1 and 2) Broad macro view of the factors of production Labor – all types Capital Machines and equipment Trucks Factories A stock (not a flow…) variable Takes time to build capital (simple starting assumption: takes one period) The function f(k, n) describes how capital and labor combine with each other to yield output (goods) Can also think of education and other intangibles (i.e., experience, brand name) as “capital” 3PRODUCTION FUNCTION Model Structure Production function f(kt, nt) with all the “usual properties” of production functions Strictly increasing in kt and nt Diminishing marginal product in kt and nt When allow time-varying At, changes in A cause shifts in production function Source of business cycle fluctuations in RBC theory kt nt Atf(kt,nt)Atf(kt,nt) for any t Recall from basic micro rise in A fall in A rise in A fall in Atotal output (i.e., GDP) total output (i.e., GDP) The extra output that results from using one additional unit of input (for A = 1) (for A = 1) 4PRODUCTION FUNCTION Model Structure Production function f(kt, nt) with all the “usual properties” of production functions Strictly increasing in kt and nt Diminishing marginal product in kt and nt When allow time-varying At, changes in A cause shifts in production function Source of business cycle fluctuations in RBC theory For now suppose At = 1 in each period kt nt for any t Recall from basic micro The extra output that results from using one additional unit of input total output (i.e., GDP) Atf(kt,nt)Atf(kt,nt) (for A = 1) (for A = 1) 5CAPITAL AND INVESTMENT Macro Fundamentals Capital takes time to build Firms must decide in period t how much capital they want to use in the production process in t+1 Investment The change in a firm’s capital stock between two consecutive periods Investment: a flow variable Analogous to consumers’ savings Capital: a stock variable Analogous to consumers’ wealth/asset position Except k cannot be negative (negative machines?...) One of the components of GDP ( = C + I + G + NX ) Investment comprises ≈ 15% of GDP in U.S. Investment comprises ≈ 40% of GDP in China (high I drives rapid growth) 6BASICS Model Structure Timeline of events Notation k1: capital used for production in period 1 (decided upon in “period 0”) n1: labor used for production in period 1 w1: real wage rate for labor in period 1 (w1 = W1/P1) i: nominal interest rate P1: nominal price of output produced and sold by firm in period 1 AND nominal price of one unit of capital bought by the firm in period 1 for use in period 2 (recall time to build…) Underlying assumption/view of world: capital goods are not necessarily “distinct” from consumption goods (i.e., computers purchased by both firms and individual consumers) Period 1 Period 2 k1 k3 Events during period 1: firm uses existing capital and hires labor to produce output, and chooses capital for next period k2 Start of the world End of the world Events during period 2: firm uses existing capital and hires labor to produce output, and chooses capital for next period Start of economic planning horizon End of economic planning horizon 7BASICS Model Structure Timeline of events Notation k2: capital used for production in period 2 (decided upon in period 1) n2: labor used for production in period 2 w2: real wage rate for labor in period 2 (w2 = W2/P2) i: nominal interest rate P2: nominal price of output produced and sold by firm in period 2 AND nominal price of one unit of capital bought by the firm in period 2 for use in period 3 (recall time to build…) Underlying assumption/view of world: capital goods are not necessarily “distinct” from consumption goods (i.e., computers purchased by both firms and individual consumers) Period 1 Period 2 k1 k3 Events during period 1: firm uses existing capital and hires labor to produce output, and chooses capital for next period k2 Start of the world End of the world Events during period 2: firm uses existing capital and hires labor to produce output, and chooses capital for next period Start of economic planning horizon End of economic planning horizon 8FIRM PROFIT MAXIMIZATION Model Structure A dynamic profit maximization problem Because firm exists for both periods All analysis conducted from the perspective of the very beginning of period 1 Must consider present-discounted-value (PDV) of lifetime (i.e., two- period) profits 9FIRM PROFIT MAXIMIZATION Model Structure A dynamic profit maximization problem Because firm exists for both periods All analysis conducted from the perspective of the very beginning of period 1 Must consider present-discounted-value (PDV) of lifetime (i.e., two- period) profits Dynamic profit function (specified in nominal terms – could specify in real terms…) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2( , )P f k n Pk Pwn Pk Period-1 profits Total revenue in period 1 (price x output) Value of pre- existing capital (an asset for firms) Total labor cost in period 1 Total cost of buying capital for period 2 (time to build must purchase period-2 capital in period 1) 10 FIRM PROFIT MAXIMIZATION Model Structure A dynamic profit maximization problem Because firm exists for both periods All analysis conducted from the perspective of the very beginning of period 1 Must consider present-discounted-value (PDV) of lifetime (i.e., two- period) profits Dynamic profit function (specified in nominal terms – could specify in real terms…) 2 32 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ( , ) ( , ) 1 1 1 1 P kP f k n P k Pw n P f k n Pk Pwn Pk i i i i Period-1 profits Total revenue in period 1 (price x output) Value of pre- existing capital (an asset for firms) Total labor cost in period 1 Total cost of buying capital for period 2 (time to build must purchase period-2 capital in period 1) (PDV of) period-2 profits Total revenue in period 2 (price x output) Value of pre- existing capital (an asset for firms) Total labor cost in period 2 Total cost of buying capital for period 3 (time to build must purchase period-3 capital in period 2) 11 FIRM PROFIT MAXIMIZATION Model Structure A dynamic profit maximization problem Because firm exists for both periods All analysis conducted from the perspective of the very beginning of period 1 Must consider present-discounted-value (PDV) of lifetime (i.e., two- period) profits Dynamic profit function (specified in nominal terms – could specify in real terms…) Two-period model: k3 = 0 (no machines needed in “period 3”) 2 32 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ( , ) ( , ) 1 1 1 1 P kP f k n P k Pw n P f k n Pk Pwn Pk i i i i Period-1 profits Total revenue in period 1 (price x output) Value of pre- existing capital (an asset for firms) Total labor cost in period 1 Total cost of buying capital for period 2 (time to build must purchase period-2 capital in period 1) (PDV of) period-2 profits Total revenue in period 2 (price x output) Value of pre- existing capital (an asset for firms) Total labor cost in period 2 Total cost of buying capital for period 3 (time to build must purchase period-3 capital in period 2) = 0 12 FIRM PROFIT MAXIMIZATION Model Structure FOCs with respect to n1, n2, k2 with respect to n1: with respect to n2: with respect to k2: 2 32 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ( , ) ( , ) 1 1 1 1 P kP f k n P k Pw n P f k n Pk Pwn Pk i i i i = 0 1 1 1 1 1( , ) 0nP f k n Pw 2 2 2 2 2 ( , ) 0 1 1 nP f k n Pw i i 2 2 2 2 1 ( , ) 0 1 1 kP f k n PP i i Identical except for time subscripts Equation 1 Equation 2 Equation 3 13 FIRM PROFIT MAXIMIZATION Model Structure Re-express equation 3 2 2 2 2 1 ( , ) 0 1 1 kP f k n PP i i Divide by P1 2 2 2 2 1 1 ( , ) 1 (1 ) (1 ) kP f k n P P i P i Group terms informatively 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 ( , ) 1 1 1 k P P f k n P i P i P2/P1 = 1 + π2 2 2 2 21 1( , ) 1 1 1 kf k n i i Fisher equation 2 2( , ) 1 1 1 1 kf k n r r Multiply by 1+r 2 2( , ) 1 1kf k n r 2 2( , )kf k n r Equivalent/alternative representation of firm profit-maximizing condition for capital 14 FIRM PROFIT MAXIMIZATION Model Structure FOCs with respect to n1, n2, k2 with respect to n1: with respect to n2: with respect to k2: Profit-maximizing labor hiring implies Profit-maximizing capital purchases (for the future...) implies 2 32 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ( , ) ( , ) 1 1 1 1 P kP f k n P k Pw n P f k n Pk Pwn Pk i i i i = 0 1 1 1 1 1( , ) 0nP f k n Pw 2 2 2 2 2 ( , ) 0 1 1 nP f k n Pw i i 2 2 2 2 1 ( , ) 0 1 1 kP f k n PP i i Identical except for time subscripts Equation 1 Equation 2 Equation 3 2 2( , )k kf n r equivalent 1 1 1( , )nf k n w 2 2( , )kf k n r 2 2 2( , )nf k n wAND 15 FIRM PROFIT MAXIMIZATION Model Structure FOCs with respect to n1, n2, k2 with respect to n1: with respect to n2: with respect to k2: Marginal product of labor fn(kt,nt) Sometimes denote by mpnt Marginal product of capital fk(kt,nt) Sometimes denote by mpkt 2 32 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ( , ) ( , ) 1 1 1 1 P kP f k n P k Pw n P f k n Pk Pwn Pk i i i i = 0 1 1 1 1 1( , ) 0nP f k n Pw 2 2 2 2 2 ( , ) 0 1 1 nP f k n Pw i i 2 2 2 2 1 ( , ) 0 1 1 kP f k n PP i i Identical except for time subscripts Equation 1 Equation 2 Equation 3 2 2( , )k kf n r equivalent These FOCs are foundation for: 1. Labor Demand 2. Capital/Investment Demand 16 COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION Macro Fundamentals A commonly-used functional form in modern quantitative macroeconomic analysis Describes the empirical relationship between aggregate GDP, aggregate capital, and aggregate labor quite well measures capital’s share of output Hence measures labor’s share of output Interpretation The relative importance of (either) capital (or labor) in the production process Estimates for U.S. economy: 1( , )t t t tf k n k n (0,1) (1 ) (0,1) 0.3 17 COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION Macro Fundamentals A commonly-used functional form in modern quantitative macroeconomic analysis Describes the empirical relationship between aggregate GDP, aggregate capital, and aggregate labor quite well measures capital’s share of output Hence measures labor’s share of output Interpretation The relative importance of (either) capital (or labor) in the production process Estimates for U.S. economy: Estimates for Chinese economy: (not (yet) a very capital-rich economy) Cobb-Douglas form useful for illustrating factor demands 1( , )t t t tf k n k n (saw Cobb-Douglas utility function on Practice Problem Set 1) (0,1) (1 ) (0,1) 0.3 0.15 ( , ) (1 )t n t t t tmpn f k n k n 1 1( , )t k t t t tmpk f k n k n 18 MICRO-LEVEL LABOR DEMAND Labor Demand in the Micro Firm-level demand for labor defined by the relation (1 ) ( )t t t tw k n mpn for both t = 1 and t = 2 (1 ) tt t k w n INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN wt and nt labor real wage D Because exponent (-α) is a negative number, can move to denominator Follows from Equation 1 and Equation 2 19 LABOR DEMAND Labor Demand in the Micro and the Macro Firm-level demand for labor defined by the relation Completes picture of the aggregate labor market (1 ) ( )t t t tw k n mpn for both t = 1 and t = 2 (1 ) tt t k w n Because exponent (-α) is a negative number, can move to denominator labor real wage D Sum over all firms Firm-level labor demand function Aggregate-level labor demand function (No tension between the micro and macro as there is for labor supply) labor real wage D Follows from Equation 1 and Equation 2 INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN wt and nt 20 MICRO-LEVEL CAPITAL DEMAND Capital Demand in the Micro Firm-level demand for capital defined by the relation 1 1 ( )t t t tr k n mpk 1 t t t n r k Because exponent (α – 1) is a negative number, can move to denominator k r capital demand function Follows from Equation 3 INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN rt and kt 21 CAPITAL DEMAND Capital Demand in the Micro and the Macro Firm-level demand for capital defined by the relation (Almost…) completes picture of the aggregate capital market 1 1 ( )t t t tr k n mpk 1 t t t n r k Because exponent (α – 1) is a negative number, can move to denominator k r capital demand function Sum over all firms Firm-level capital demand function Aggregate-level capital demand function (No tension between the micro and macro) k r capital demand function Follows from Equation 3 INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN rt and kt 22 FROM CAPITAL DEMAND TO INVESTMENT DEMAND Investment Demand Capital is a stock variable k r capital demand function Want investment (a flow) to show up here, not capital (a stock) Investment is change in capital stock between consecutive periods 23 FROM CAPITAL DEMAND TO INVESTMENT DEMAND Investment Demand Capital is a stock variable Investment is a flow variable k r capital demand function Want investment (a flow) to show up here, not capital (a stock) Investment is change in capital stock between consecutive periods investment r investment demand function inv1 = k2 – k1 At start of period 1, k1 cannot be changed. Thus any rise in demand for k2 is reflected one-for-one in a rise in inv1. Capital demand and investment demand functions have same shape 24 THE THREE MACRO (AGGREGATE) MARKETS The Three Macro Markets Goods Markets Demand derived from C-L framework (For S, have to consider how aggregate NOMINAL P is determined…Chapter 15) Labor Markets Supply derived from C-L framework Demand derived from firm theory in C-S framework Capital/Savings/Funds/Asset Markets (aka Financial Markets) Supply derived from C-S framework Demand derived from firm theory in C-S framework c P labor wage savings/in vestment real interest rate S D S D D S
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