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时间：2023-06-12
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023
J P M O R G A N
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
TJX Companies
Follow The Traffic - Solid 4Q w/ Embedded FY24
“Conservatism”; Remain Overweight
Overweight
TJX, TJX US
Price (21 Feb 23):$78.82
Price Target (Dec-23):$95.00
Retailing – Department Stores &
Specialty Softlines
Matthew R. Boss, CPA AC
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg JPMA BOSS
Amanda K. Douglas
(1-212) 622 0316
amanda.douglas@jpmorgan.com
Elsa H Evans
(1-212) 622-4922
elsa.evans@jpmchase.com
Robert Friedner
(1-212) 622-5413
robert.friedner@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Jan)
Adj. EPS ($)
2023A 2024E 2025E
Q1 0.68 0.70
Q2 0.69 0.81
Q3 0.86 0.97
Q4 0.89 1.03
FY 3.11 3.51 3.95
Style Exposure
TJX reported 4Q EPS of $0.89 (= Street/JPM) with +5% revenue growth (>
Consensus at +1.5%) offset by a 100bps GPM decline (26.1% < Street 27.8%)
translating to a 9.2% pre-tax margin (vs. Street 9.9%).
• Digging Deeper: Marmaxx +7% same-store-sales (> Street +1.3%) in 4Q
equates to a +5.7% 3-year CAGR (> 3Q’s 4.6% CAGR and +130bps above
Marmaxx’s pre-pandemic 3-yr comp average) led by apparel & accessories
with US customer traffic inflecting back to positive territory.
Looking ahead, mgmt guided FY24 EPS to $3.39-$3.51 (vs. Street $3.55) on a
53-week basis (apples to apples w our model) based on +2-3% same-store-sales,
which matches our $3.45 initial guide bar into the print.
• “Conservatism” (said 3 times on the 11AM call) Translation: Holding
Marmaxx’s 4Q23 +5.7% CAGR through FY24 translates to a +8% Marmaxx
comp YOY, or +5% FY24 TJX consolidated same-store-sales holding all else
equal - translating to ~$3.80 FY24 EPS power by our model math or more than
+20% EPS growth Y/Y (including the 53rd week), noting FY24’s embedded
+140bps gross margin expansion represents a return to the model’s FY17 29%
historical peak (w/ EBIT margin that year = 11.6%).
Remain Overweight w/ $95 Dec ’23 price target.
3 Key Post Call Follow-Up Points & Model Implications:
(1) 4Q Traffic Inflection w/ +7% Marmaxx SSS: +4% consolidated TJX US-
only same-store-sales accelerated +600bps vs. 3Q led by +7% comps at Marmaxx
(> 3Q +3%) and sequential improvement at HomeGoods -7% (> 3Q -16%).
Driving the sequential improvement in US-only same-store-sales – CEO Herrman
cited a US customer traffic increase with 4Q representing the first quarter of
FY23 of positive traffic increases, and importantly follows strengthening traffic as
3Q progressed (albeit still finishing down). By the math, the Marmaxx +7%
comp increase in 4Q translates to a 5.7% 3-yr comp CAGR (accelerating more
than 100bps relative to 3Q’s 4.6% CAGR and +130bps above Marmaxx’s pre-
pandemic 3-yr comp average) driven by strong sales in its apparel &
accessories categories, while CEO Herrman also cited the “eclectic, rapidly
changing mix of gift giving assortments clearly resonated with consumers this
holiday season.” At HomeGoods, -7% reported same-store-sales came in line with
Street expectations and translated to a +4.3% 3-yr comp CAGR (relative to 3Q’s
+4%), with our work pointing to strength within key Holiday/seasonal assortments
(relative to lean inventory levels LY).
(2) “Strong Start” To FY24 = Beat/Raise Setup: Near-term, mgmt guided 1Q24
EPS to $0.68-$0.71 (vs. Street $0.74) based on +2-3% overall same-store-sales
growth with CEO Herrman citing “FY24 is off to a strong start and we remain
See page 7 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.
2Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
Price Performance
YTD 1m 3m 12m
Abs -1.0% -0.9% -0.2% 19.2%
Rel -5.1% -1.5% -1.4% 26.3%
Company Data
Shares O/S (mn) 1,171
52-week range ($) 83.13-53.69
Market cap ($ mn) 92,298.22
Exchange rate 1.00
Free float(%) 93.2%
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 5.37
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 429.6
Volatility (90 Day) 23
Index S&P 500
BBG BUY|HOLD|SELL 19|5|1
Key Metrics (FYE Jan)
$ in millions FY23A FY24E FY25E
Financial Estimates
Revenue 49,936 53,186 55,850
Adj. EBITDA 5,724 6,374 7,073
Adj. EBIT 4,642 5,397 6,047
Adj. net income 3,662 4,081 4,511
Adj. EPS 3.11 3.51 3.95
BBG EPS 3.56 3.96 -
Cashflow from operations 4,084 4,758 5,705
FCFF 2,627 3,044 3,948
Margins and Growth
Revenue growth 2.9% 6.5% 5.0%
Gross margin 27.6% 29.1% 29.8%
EBITDA margin 11.5% 12.0% 12.7%
EBIT margin 9.3% 10.1% 10.8%
Adj. EPS growth 9.2% 13.0% 12.6%
Ratios
Adj. tax rate 24.6% 26.0% 26.1%
Interest cover 899.3 - -
Net debt/Equity NM NM NM
Net debt/EBITDA (0.5) (0.3) (0.2)
ROCE 36.7% 40.5% 43.0%
ROE 59.2% 62.7% 64.1%
Valuation
FCFF yield 2.8% 3.3% 4.4%
Dividend yield - - -
EV/Revenue 1.5 1.4 1.3
EV/EBITDA 12.8 11.6 10.4
Adj. P/E 25.3 22.4 19.9
Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation
Investment Thesis
Within retailing, we believe positioning is paramount with
Off-Price growth prospects ripe (only 15% of $300B apparel
market today) and TJX a multi-year beneficiary given a rare
trio of positive brick & mortar traffic (treasure hunt strategy à
la DLTR/COST with legs to the branded cycle, 28% home
exposure, and lateral fast-fashion traffic beneficiary), global
reach (mid-teens Europe mix with high barriers to entry), and
e‑commerce an incremental $2-3B (i.e., 5-10%) opportunity
on our math (basics focus with no cannibalization to date).
Valuation
Our December ’23 PT of $95 is based on 24x our FY25E EPS
(= 1.8x 3-yr pre-pandemic average PEG applied to forward
Low-Teens EPS growth).
Performance Drivers
Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be
complete or exact.
3Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
confident in improving our profitability this year.” Importantly, 1Q’s guide translates to a
+4.4% 4-yr comp CAGR at the midpoint (more/less matching 2H23’s 3-year comp CAGR
by our estimates). Importantly, our work points to a strong exit to 4Q in January (with
our math pointing to +5% US-only SSS in January > total US-only comp +4%) with
strength continuing into February supported by early tax refund distributions Y/Y and
favorable weather relative to last year notably in the Northeast (+5 degrees warmer
Y/Y). On the bottom-line, management sees markdowns Flat Y/Y (noting 4Q’s
outperformance in sales led to slightly less inventory on hand than anticipated and a favorable
position to flow fresh merchandise to stores this Spring and chase into potential upside vs.
plan), and a +130bps expected freight benefit in 1Q23 to offset wage/supply chain related
headwinds.
(3) FY24 EPS = 10% “Core” Growth at +3% Comp: For FY24, mgmt guided overall SSS
to +2-3% on a 1-yr basis, pre-tax margins of 10.1-10.3%, and EPS in the range of $3.39-3.51
(vs. Street $3.55) including a $0.10 EPS benefit from the 53rd week and translating to 9-13%
EPS growth Y/Y (or +6-10% EPS growth excluding the 53rd week). Recall, we previewed
expectations for management to guide same-store-sales up low-single-digits and implied
pre-tax margin of ~10.3% and EPS of $3.45, including the 53rd Week (vs. Street $3.55).
Importantly, management reiterated expectations to return to the 10.6% pre-pandemic
pre-tax margin by FY25 – implying low-double-digits EPS growth annually over the
next 2 years on ~3% comps, or a return to management’s stated top-/bottom-line
growth algorithm supported by strong merchandise margin gains (AURs & better
buying). A key point from the 11AM conference call – management is forecasting
+140bps of gross margin expansion in FY24 to 29% (= FY17 historical peak) citing
incremental freight tailwind and AUR strategy accretion in FY25 (noting FY17’s 29%
GPM translated to a 11.6% EBIT margin). More specifically, management guided to +80-
100bps of freight recapture in FY24 with expectations to see further freight tailwinds in FY25
(albeit to smaller magnitude than FY24 tied to timing of domestic freight contract renewal),
ongoing better buying & AUR benefits in both FY24/25, and Shrink Flat Y/Y in both
FY24/25.
• JPM Model Math: A +4% same-store-sales scenario in FY24 - consistent with TJX’s
pre-pandemic 3-yr average – would point to FY24 EPS power of ~$3.60 (> Street $3.55),
equating to Mid-Teens EPS growth Y/Y. Taking this a step further – holding
Marmaxx’s 4Q +5.7% 4-yr CAGR through FY24 translates to a +8% Y/Y Marmaxx
comp, or a +5% FY24 overall same-store-sales holding all else equal by our math
and ~$3.80 FY24 EPS power, representing more than 20% EPS growth Y/Y
(including the 53rd week).
4Q P/L Breakdown: TJX reported 4Q net sales growth +5% yoy (vs. St +1.5%) based on
US-only same-store-sales +4% (accelerating +600bps vs. 3Q -2%) led by Marmaxx +7% (vs.
3Q +3%) and HomeGoods -7% (vs. 3Q -16%). On cadence, our work points to a sequential
improvement in same-store-sales throughout 4Q with strong basket (including higher
average ticket) and traffic trends continuing into January w/ CEO Herrman citing “rapidly
changing mix of gift giving assortments clearly resonated with consumers this Holiday
season.” Further, mgmt noted that outsized U.S. comp performance was driven by “excellent
sales” of apparel & accessories at Marmaxx and increased customer traffic. On the bottom-
line, 4Q adj. EBIT margin of 9.1% was below Street expectations (9.8%) and
represented -6bps of contraction Y/Y, driven by GPM contraction of -104bps, offset by
SG&A rate leverage of -98bps Y/Y. Specifically, 4Q’s GPM was driven a decrease in
merchandise margins, including an unplanned 60bps shrink charge (vs. +50bps benefit
planned) and higher markdowns lapping LY’s exceptionally low markdowns offsetting
strong mark-on, and 4Q SG&A leveraged ~100bps Y/Y driven by strong comp sales, w/
4Q23’s SG&A rate 50bps below 2019 levels despite wage headwinds.
4Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
Balance Sheet Update: (1) Cash/Leverage: TJX ended 4Q with $5.5B in cash against
$3.36B of debt. (2) Inventory: Total 4Q inventories were -2% yoy and mgmt noting that the
company is “well-positioned to take advantage of the outstanding availability of quality,
branded merchandise in the marketplace and flow fresh merchandise to its stores and online
this spring.” (3) Capital Allocation: TJX generated $3B of operating cash flow during 4Q and
repurchased $450M of TJX stock, retiring 5.7M shares, and paid $341M in shareholder
dividends. Looking ahead, TJX now expects to repurchase ~$2-$2.5B of TJX in FY24
(announcing a new $2.0B share repurchase program) and increased the company’s
dividend by 13% to $0.3325/share.
Figure 1: 4Q23 P/L Review
$ in Millions (except per share) Actual JPMe Consensus
Total Revenue $14,520 $14,044 $14,066
Gross Profit $3,789 $3,982 $3,910
Operating Income $1,316 $1,366 $1,373
Net Income $1,038 $1,039 $1,042
Shares Outstanding 1,171 1,168 1,170
EPS $0.89 $0.89 $0.89
Margins and Growth
US-Only Same Store Sales 4.0% 0.9% 0.5%
Marmaxx SSS 7.0% 3.5% 1.3%
HomeGoods SSS -7.0% -8.0% -6.9%
Revenue Growth 4.8% 1.4% 1.5%
Gross Margin 26.1% 28.4% 27.8%
SG&A Rate 17.0% 18.6% 18.0%
EBIT Margin 9.1% 9.7% 9.8%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Consensus Metrix.
5Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
TJX Companies (Overweight; Price Target: $95.00)
Investment Thesis
Within retailing, we believe positioning is paramount with Off-Price growth prospects ripe
(only 15% of $300B apparel market today) and TJX a multi-year beneficiary given a rare
trio of positive brick & mortar traffic (treasure hunt strategy à la DLTR/COST with legs to
the branded cycle, 28% home exposure, and lateral fast-fashion traffic beneficiary), global
reach (mid-teens Europe mix with high barriers to entry), and e‑commerce an incremental
$2-3B (i.e., 5-10%) opportunity on our math (basics focus with no cannibalization to date).
Valuation
Our December ’23 PT of $95 is based on 24x our FY25E EPS (= 1.8x 3-yr pre-pandemic
average PEG applied to forward Low-Teens EPS growth).
Risks to Rating and Price Target
The economic climate, particularly the employment picture, can affect consumer spending
and the apparel industry. A greater than expected downturn in household spending could
cause sales trends to decelerate below our current assumptions, rendering our estimates too
high. Additionally, a change in the competitive landscape related to promotional activity,
particularly from the department store channel, could negatively impact market share gain
potential. Finally, lack of inventory availability within the closeout channel or brands
pulling out of the off-price channel could negatively impact SSS.
6Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
TJX Companies: Summary of Financials
Income Statement - Annual FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Revenue 48,550 49,936 53,186 55,850 -
COGS (34,714) (36,148) (37,714) (39,180) -
Gross profit 13,836 13,787 15,471 16,670 -
SG&A (9,081) (8,927) (10,075) (10,624) -
Adj. EBITDA 5,623 5,724 6,374 7,073 -
D&A (868) (918) (977) (1,026) -
Adj. EBIT 4,513 4,642 5,397 6,047 -
Net Interest (115) (6) 116 58 -
Adj. PBT 4,398 4,636 5,513 6,105 -
Tax (1,115) (1,138) (1,432) (1,593) -
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 -
Adj. Net Income 3,463 3,662 4,081 4,511 -
.
Reported EPS 2.70 2.97 3.51 3.95 -
Adj. EPS 2.85 3.11 3.51 3.95 -
DPS - - - - -
Payout ratio - - - - -
Shares outstanding 1,216 1,178 1,162 1,141 -
Same Store Sales Growth - - - - -
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Cash and cash equivalents 6,227 5,477 4,520 4,574 -
Accounts receivable 956 1,041 1,109 1,164 -
Inventories 5,962 5,819 6,198 6,508 -
Other current assets 115 119 127 133 -
Current assets 13,259 12,456 11,953 12,380 -
PP&E 5,271 5,783 6,606 7,380 -
LT investments - - - - -
Other non current assets 9,932 10,110 10,170 10,220 -
Total assets 28,462 28,349 28,730 29,980 -
Short term borrowings 0 500 500 500 -
Payables 4,465 3,794 3,533 3,710 -
Other short term liabilities 6,003 6,011 6,297 6,532 -
Current liabilities 10,468 10,305 10,330 10,742 -
Long-term debt 3,355 2,859 2,859 2,859 -
Other long term liabilities 8,636 8,821 8,889 8,945 -
Total liabilities 22,459 21,985 22,078 22,546 -
Shareholders' equity 6,003 6,364 6,652 7,434 -
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 -
Total liabilities & equity 28,462 28,349 28,730 29,980 -
BVPS 4.94 5.40 5.73 6.52 -
y/y Growth 2.2% 9.4% 6.0% 13.8% -
Net debt/(cash) (2,872) (2,618) (1,661) (1,715) -
Cash flow from operating activities 3,057 4,084 4,758 5,705 -
o/w Depreciation & amortization 868 887 977 1,026 -
o/w Changes in working capital (1,489) (728) (421) 46 -
Cash flow from investing activities (1,046) (1,470) (1,800) (1,800) -
o/w Capital expenditure (1,045) (1,457) (1,800) (1,800) -
as % of sales 2.2% 2.9% 3.4% 3.2% -
Cash flow from financing activities (6,200) (3,306) (3,915) (3,851) -
o/w Dividends paid (1,252) (1,339) (1,545) (1,481) -
o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) (2,976) 0 0 0 -
Net change in cash (4,243) (750) (957) 54 -
Adj. Free cash flow to firm 2,013 2,627 3,044 3,948 -
y/y Growth (49.6%) 30.5% 15.9% 29.7% -
Income Statement - Quarterly 1Q24E 2Q24E 3Q24E 4Q24E
Revenue 11,822 12,375 13,001 15,988
COGS (8,328) (8,757) (9,073) (11,556)
Gross profit - - - -
SG&A (2,405) (2,381) (2,430) (2,859)
Adj. EBITDA 1,316 1,464 1,732 1,862
D&A (228) (228) (233) (288)
Adj. EBIT 1,089 1,236 1,498 1,574
Net Interest 29 29 29 29
Adj. PBT 1,118 1,265 1,527 1,603
Tax (295) (325) (400) (412)
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Adj. Net Income 823 940 1,127 1,191
Reported EPS 0.70 0.81 0.97 1.03
Adj. EPS 0.70 0.81 0.97 1.03
DPS - - - -
Payout ratio - - - -
Shares outstanding 1,167 1,164 1,160 1,156
Same Store Sales Growth - - - -
Ratio Analysis FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Gross margin 28.5% 27.6% 29.1% 29.8% -
EBITDA margin 11.6% 11.5% 12.0% 12.7% -
EBIT margin 9.3% 9.3% 10.1% 10.8% -
Net profit margin 7.1% 7.3% 7.7% 8.1% -
ROE 58.5% 59.2% 62.7% 64.1% -
ROA 11.7% 12.9% 14.3% 15.4% -
ROCE 31.7% 36.7% 40.5% 43.0% -
SG&A/Sales 18.7% 17.9% 18.9% 19.0% -
Net debt/equity NM NM NM NM -
P/E (x) 27.7 25.3 22.4 19.9 -
P/BV (x) 16.0 14.6 13.8 12.1 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 12.8 11.6 10.4 -
Dividend Yield - - - - -
Sales/Assets (x) 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 -
Interest cover (x) 48.9 899.3 - - -
Operating leverage 3076.8% 100.8% 249.7% 240.3% -
Revenue y/y Growth 51.1% 2.9% 6.5% 5.0% -
EBITDA y/y Growth 287.0% 1.8% 11.4% 11.0% -
EBIT y/y Growth 1571.4% 2.9% 16.3% 12.0% -
Tax rate 25.4% 24.6% 26.0% 26.1% -
Adj. Net Income y/y Growth 1024.8% 5.8% 11.4% 10.6% -
EPS y/y Growth 1017.4% 9.2% 13.0% 12.6% -
DPS y/y Growth - - - - -
Store Count - - - - -
Sales per Store - - - - -
Total Square Footage - - - - -
Sales per sq foot - - - - -
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: $ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Jan. o/w - out of which
7Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research Analysts
are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies,
with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
accurately reflect the Research Analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the
Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the
Research Analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based Research Analysts listed on the front cover, if applicable, they also certify, as per KOFIA
requirements, that the Research Analyst’s analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect the Research Analyst’s own opinion,
without undue influence or intervention.
All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector
Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.
Important Disclosures
Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of/related to TJX
Companies.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: TJX Companies.
Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies)
as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: TJX Companies.
Client/Non-Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients, and the
services provided were non-securities-related: TJX Companies.
Non-Investment Banking Compensation Received: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services
other than investment banking from TJX Companies.
Debt Position: J.P. Morgan may hold a position in the debt securities of TJX Companies, if any.
Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for compendium
reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies, and certain non-covered companies, by visitinghttps://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures ,
calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com with your request.
Date Rating Price ($) Price Target
($)
24-Feb-20 OW 63.31 69
23-Mar-20 OW 37.37 51
18-May-20 OW 47.17 52
21-May-20 OW 50.85 60
12-Aug-20 OW 57.51 63
18-Sep-20 OW 55.94 66
18-Nov-20 OW 61.14 70
04-Jan-21 OW 68.29 74
07-Apr-21 OW 67.64 78
17-May-21 OW 72.43 81
20-May-21 OW 67.38 80
16-Aug-21 OW 70.49 86
19-Nov-21 OW 73.10 92
17-Feb-22 OW 67.10 85
23-Feb-22 OW 65.25 81
16-May-22 OW 57.19 76
25-Jul-22 OW 63.76 71
16-Sep-22 OW 64.88 80
16-Nov-22 OW 75.12 90
06-Feb-23 OW 80.52 95
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average
total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect
8Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.]
Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s
(or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this
stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable,
the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia and ex-India)
and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country
market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying
analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, https://www.jpmorganmarkets.com.
Coverage Universe: Boss, Matthew R: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF), Allbirds (BIRD), American Eagle
Outfitters (AEO), Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI), Big Lots, Inc. (BIG), Boot Barn (BOOT), Bowlero Corp. (BOWL), Brilliant Earth (BRLT),
Brunswick Corp (BC), Burlington Stores (BURL), Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI), Dillard's, Inc. (DDS), Dollar General Corp. (DG), Dollar Tree,
Inc. (DLTR), Five Below (FIVE), Foot Locker (FL), Kohl's Corp. (KSS), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), Macy's, Inc. (M), Mytheresa (MYTE),
NIKE, Inc. (NKE), Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI), PVH Corp. (PVH), Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL), Ross
Stores (ROST), TJX Companies (TJX), Tapestry Inc (TPR), The Gap, Inc. (GPS), Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG), Under Armour,
Inc. (UAA), Urban Outfitters (URBN), V.F. Corporation (VFC), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), lululemon athletica inc. (LULU)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of January 01, 2023
Overweight
(buy)
Neutral
(hold)
Underweight
(sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage* 48% 37% 14%
IB clients** 47% 45% 35%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage* 47% 40% 13%
IB clients** 65% 66% 55%
*Please note that the percentages might not add to 100% because of rounding.
**Percentage of subject companies within each of the "buy," "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
For purposes only of FINRA ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls
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9Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
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Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
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11
Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
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redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. #$J&098$#*P
Completed 22 Feb 2023 01:41 PM EST Disseminated 22 Feb 2023 01:41 PM EST
22 February 2023
J P M O R G A N
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
TJX Companies
Follow The Traffic - Solid 4Q w/ Embedded FY24
“Conservatism”; Remain Overweight
Overweight
TJX, TJX US
Price (21 Feb 23):$78.82
Price Target (Dec-23):$95.00
Retailing – Department Stores &
Specialty Softlines
Matthew R. Boss, CPA AC
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg JPMA BOSS
Amanda K. Douglas
(1-212) 622 0316
amanda.douglas@jpmorgan.com
Elsa H Evans
(1-212) 622-4922
elsa.evans@jpmchase.com
Robert Friedner
(1-212) 622-5413
robert.friedner@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Jan)
Adj. EPS ($)
2023A 2024E 2025E
Q1 0.68 0.70
Q2 0.69 0.81
Q3 0.86 0.97
Q4 0.89 1.03
FY 3.11 3.51 3.95
Style Exposure
TJX reported 4Q EPS of $0.89 (= Street/JPM) with +5% revenue growth (>
Consensus at +1.5%) offset by a 100bps GPM decline (26.1% < Street 27.8%)
translating to a 9.2% pre-tax margin (vs. Street 9.9%).
• Digging Deeper: Marmaxx +7% same-store-sales (> Street +1.3%) in 4Q
equates to a +5.7% 3-year CAGR (> 3Q’s 4.6% CAGR and +130bps above
Marmaxx’s pre-pandemic 3-yr comp average) led by apparel & accessories
with US customer traffic inflecting back to positive territory.
Looking ahead, mgmt guided FY24 EPS to $3.39-$3.51 (vs. Street $3.55) on a
53-week basis (apples to apples w our model) based on +2-3% same-store-sales,
which matches our $3.45 initial guide bar into the print.
• “Conservatism” (said 3 times on the 11AM call) Translation: Holding
Marmaxx’s 4Q23 +5.7% CAGR through FY24 translates to a +8% Marmaxx
comp YOY, or +5% FY24 TJX consolidated same-store-sales holding all else
equal - translating to ~$3.80 FY24 EPS power by our model math or more than
+20% EPS growth Y/Y (including the 53rd week), noting FY24’s embedded
+140bps gross margin expansion represents a return to the model’s FY17 29%
historical peak (w/ EBIT margin that year = 11.6%).
Remain Overweight w/ $95 Dec ’23 price target.
3 Key Post Call Follow-Up Points & Model Implications:
(1) 4Q Traffic Inflection w/ +7% Marmaxx SSS: +4% consolidated TJX US-
only same-store-sales accelerated +600bps vs. 3Q led by +7% comps at Marmaxx
(> 3Q +3%) and sequential improvement at HomeGoods -7% (> 3Q -16%).
Driving the sequential improvement in US-only same-store-sales – CEO Herrman
cited a US customer traffic increase with 4Q representing the first quarter of
FY23 of positive traffic increases, and importantly follows strengthening traffic as
3Q progressed (albeit still finishing down). By the math, the Marmaxx +7%
comp increase in 4Q translates to a 5.7% 3-yr comp CAGR (accelerating more
than 100bps relative to 3Q’s 4.6% CAGR and +130bps above Marmaxx’s pre-
pandemic 3-yr comp average) driven by strong sales in its apparel &
accessories categories, while CEO Herrman also cited the “eclectic, rapidly
changing mix of gift giving assortments clearly resonated with consumers this
holiday season.” At HomeGoods, -7% reported same-store-sales came in line with
Street expectations and translated to a +4.3% 3-yr comp CAGR (relative to 3Q’s
+4%), with our work pointing to strength within key Holiday/seasonal assortments
(relative to lean inventory levels LY).
(2) “Strong Start” To FY24 = Beat/Raise Setup: Near-term, mgmt guided 1Q24
EPS to $0.68-$0.71 (vs. Street $0.74) based on +2-3% overall same-store-sales
growth with CEO Herrman citing “FY24 is off to a strong start and we remain
See page 7 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.
2Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
Price Performance
YTD 1m 3m 12m
Abs -1.0% -0.9% -0.2% 19.2%
Rel -5.1% -1.5% -1.4% 26.3%
Company Data
Shares O/S (mn) 1,171
52-week range ($) 83.13-53.69
Market cap ($ mn) 92,298.22
Exchange rate 1.00
Free float(%) 93.2%
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 5.37
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 429.6
Volatility (90 Day) 23
Index S&P 500
BBG BUY|HOLD|SELL 19|5|1
Key Metrics (FYE Jan)
$ in millions FY23A FY24E FY25E
Financial Estimates
Revenue 49,936 53,186 55,850
Adj. EBITDA 5,724 6,374 7,073
Adj. EBIT 4,642 5,397 6,047
Adj. net income 3,662 4,081 4,511
Adj. EPS 3.11 3.51 3.95
BBG EPS 3.56 3.96 -
Cashflow from operations 4,084 4,758 5,705
FCFF 2,627 3,044 3,948
Margins and Growth
Revenue growth 2.9% 6.5% 5.0%
Gross margin 27.6% 29.1% 29.8%
EBITDA margin 11.5% 12.0% 12.7%
EBIT margin 9.3% 10.1% 10.8%
Adj. EPS growth 9.2% 13.0% 12.6%
Ratios
Adj. tax rate 24.6% 26.0% 26.1%
Interest cover 899.3 - -
Net debt/Equity NM NM NM
Net debt/EBITDA (0.5) (0.3) (0.2)
ROCE 36.7% 40.5% 43.0%
ROE 59.2% 62.7% 64.1%
Valuation
FCFF yield 2.8% 3.3% 4.4%
Dividend yield - - -
EV/Revenue 1.5 1.4 1.3
EV/EBITDA 12.8 11.6 10.4
Adj. P/E 25.3 22.4 19.9
Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation
Investment Thesis
Within retailing, we believe positioning is paramount with
Off-Price growth prospects ripe (only 15% of $300B apparel
market today) and TJX a multi-year beneficiary given a rare
trio of positive brick & mortar traffic (treasure hunt strategy à
la DLTR/COST with legs to the branded cycle, 28% home
exposure, and lateral fast-fashion traffic beneficiary), global
reach (mid-teens Europe mix with high barriers to entry), and
e‑commerce an incremental $2-3B (i.e., 5-10%) opportunity
on our math (basics focus with no cannibalization to date).
Valuation
Our December ’23 PT of $95 is based on 24x our FY25E EPS
(= 1.8x 3-yr pre-pandemic average PEG applied to forward
Low-Teens EPS growth).
Performance Drivers
Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be
complete or exact.
3Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
confident in improving our profitability this year.” Importantly, 1Q’s guide translates to a
+4.4% 4-yr comp CAGR at the midpoint (more/less matching 2H23’s 3-year comp CAGR
by our estimates). Importantly, our work points to a strong exit to 4Q in January (with
our math pointing to +5% US-only SSS in January > total US-only comp +4%) with
strength continuing into February supported by early tax refund distributions Y/Y and
favorable weather relative to last year notably in the Northeast (+5 degrees warmer
Y/Y). On the bottom-line, management sees markdowns Flat Y/Y (noting 4Q’s
outperformance in sales led to slightly less inventory on hand than anticipated and a favorable
position to flow fresh merchandise to stores this Spring and chase into potential upside vs.
plan), and a +130bps expected freight benefit in 1Q23 to offset wage/supply chain related
headwinds.
(3) FY24 EPS = 10% “Core” Growth at +3% Comp: For FY24, mgmt guided overall SSS
to +2-3% on a 1-yr basis, pre-tax margins of 10.1-10.3%, and EPS in the range of $3.39-3.51
(vs. Street $3.55) including a $0.10 EPS benefit from the 53rd week and translating to 9-13%
EPS growth Y/Y (or +6-10% EPS growth excluding the 53rd week). Recall, we previewed
expectations for management to guide same-store-sales up low-single-digits and implied
pre-tax margin of ~10.3% and EPS of $3.45, including the 53rd Week (vs. Street $3.55).
Importantly, management reiterated expectations to return to the 10.6% pre-pandemic
pre-tax margin by FY25 – implying low-double-digits EPS growth annually over the
next 2 years on ~3% comps, or a return to management’s stated top-/bottom-line
growth algorithm supported by strong merchandise margin gains (AURs & better
buying). A key point from the 11AM conference call – management is forecasting
+140bps of gross margin expansion in FY24 to 29% (= FY17 historical peak) citing
incremental freight tailwind and AUR strategy accretion in FY25 (noting FY17’s 29%
GPM translated to a 11.6% EBIT margin). More specifically, management guided to +80-
100bps of freight recapture in FY24 with expectations to see further freight tailwinds in FY25
(albeit to smaller magnitude than FY24 tied to timing of domestic freight contract renewal),
ongoing better buying & AUR benefits in both FY24/25, and Shrink Flat Y/Y in both
FY24/25.
• JPM Model Math: A +4% same-store-sales scenario in FY24 - consistent with TJX’s
pre-pandemic 3-yr average – would point to FY24 EPS power of ~$3.60 (> Street $3.55),
equating to Mid-Teens EPS growth Y/Y. Taking this a step further – holding
Marmaxx’s 4Q +5.7% 4-yr CAGR through FY24 translates to a +8% Y/Y Marmaxx
comp, or a +5% FY24 overall same-store-sales holding all else equal by our math
and ~$3.80 FY24 EPS power, representing more than 20% EPS growth Y/Y
(including the 53rd week).
4Q P/L Breakdown: TJX reported 4Q net sales growth +5% yoy (vs. St +1.5%) based on
US-only same-store-sales +4% (accelerating +600bps vs. 3Q -2%) led by Marmaxx +7% (vs.
3Q +3%) and HomeGoods -7% (vs. 3Q -16%). On cadence, our work points to a sequential
improvement in same-store-sales throughout 4Q with strong basket (including higher
average ticket) and traffic trends continuing into January w/ CEO Herrman citing “rapidly
changing mix of gift giving assortments clearly resonated with consumers this Holiday
season.” Further, mgmt noted that outsized U.S. comp performance was driven by “excellent
sales” of apparel & accessories at Marmaxx and increased customer traffic. On the bottom-
line, 4Q adj. EBIT margin of 9.1% was below Street expectations (9.8%) and
represented -6bps of contraction Y/Y, driven by GPM contraction of -104bps, offset by
SG&A rate leverage of -98bps Y/Y. Specifically, 4Q’s GPM was driven a decrease in
merchandise margins, including an unplanned 60bps shrink charge (vs. +50bps benefit
planned) and higher markdowns lapping LY’s exceptionally low markdowns offsetting
strong mark-on, and 4Q SG&A leveraged ~100bps Y/Y driven by strong comp sales, w/
4Q23’s SG&A rate 50bps below 2019 levels despite wage headwinds.
4Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
Balance Sheet Update: (1) Cash/Leverage: TJX ended 4Q with $5.5B in cash against
$3.36B of debt. (2) Inventory: Total 4Q inventories were -2% yoy and mgmt noting that the
company is “well-positioned to take advantage of the outstanding availability of quality,
branded merchandise in the marketplace and flow fresh merchandise to its stores and online
this spring.” (3) Capital Allocation: TJX generated $3B of operating cash flow during 4Q and
repurchased $450M of TJX stock, retiring 5.7M shares, and paid $341M in shareholder
dividends. Looking ahead, TJX now expects to repurchase ~$2-$2.5B of TJX in FY24
(announcing a new $2.0B share repurchase program) and increased the company’s
dividend by 13% to $0.3325/share.
Figure 1: 4Q23 P/L Review
$ in Millions (except per share) Actual JPMe Consensus
Total Revenue $14,520 $14,044 $14,066
Gross Profit $3,789 $3,982 $3,910
Operating Income $1,316 $1,366 $1,373
Net Income $1,038 $1,039 $1,042
Shares Outstanding 1,171 1,168 1,170
EPS $0.89 $0.89 $0.89
Margins and Growth
US-Only Same Store Sales 4.0% 0.9% 0.5%
Marmaxx SSS 7.0% 3.5% 1.3%
HomeGoods SSS -7.0% -8.0% -6.9%
Revenue Growth 4.8% 1.4% 1.5%
Gross Margin 26.1% 28.4% 27.8%
SG&A Rate 17.0% 18.6% 18.0%
EBIT Margin 9.1% 9.7% 9.8%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Consensus Metrix.
5Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
TJX Companies (Overweight; Price Target: $95.00)
Investment Thesis
Within retailing, we believe positioning is paramount with Off-Price growth prospects ripe
(only 15% of $300B apparel market today) and TJX a multi-year beneficiary given a rare
trio of positive brick & mortar traffic (treasure hunt strategy à la DLTR/COST with legs to
the branded cycle, 28% home exposure, and lateral fast-fashion traffic beneficiary), global
reach (mid-teens Europe mix with high barriers to entry), and e‑commerce an incremental
$2-3B (i.e., 5-10%) opportunity on our math (basics focus with no cannibalization to date).
Valuation
Our December ’23 PT of $95 is based on 24x our FY25E EPS (= 1.8x 3-yr pre-pandemic
average PEG applied to forward Low-Teens EPS growth).
Risks to Rating and Price Target
The economic climate, particularly the employment picture, can affect consumer spending
and the apparel industry. A greater than expected downturn in household spending could
cause sales trends to decelerate below our current assumptions, rendering our estimates too
high. Additionally, a change in the competitive landscape related to promotional activity,
particularly from the department store channel, could negatively impact market share gain
potential. Finally, lack of inventory availability within the closeout channel or brands
pulling out of the off-price channel could negatively impact SSS.
6Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
TJX Companies: Summary of Financials
Income Statement - Annual FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Revenue 48,550 49,936 53,186 55,850 -
COGS (34,714) (36,148) (37,714) (39,180) -
Gross profit 13,836 13,787 15,471 16,670 -
SG&A (9,081) (8,927) (10,075) (10,624) -
Adj. EBITDA 5,623 5,724 6,374 7,073 -
D&A (868) (918) (977) (1,026) -
Adj. EBIT 4,513 4,642 5,397 6,047 -
Net Interest (115) (6) 116 58 -
Adj. PBT 4,398 4,636 5,513 6,105 -
Tax (1,115) (1,138) (1,432) (1,593) -
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 -
Adj. Net Income 3,463 3,662 4,081 4,511 -
.
Reported EPS 2.70 2.97 3.51 3.95 -
Adj. EPS 2.85 3.11 3.51 3.95 -
DPS - - - - -
Payout ratio - - - - -
Shares outstanding 1,216 1,178 1,162 1,141 -
Same Store Sales Growth - - - - -
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Cash and cash equivalents 6,227 5,477 4,520 4,574 -
Accounts receivable 956 1,041 1,109 1,164 -
Inventories 5,962 5,819 6,198 6,508 -
Other current assets 115 119 127 133 -
Current assets 13,259 12,456 11,953 12,380 -
PP&E 5,271 5,783 6,606 7,380 -
LT investments - - - - -
Other non current assets 9,932 10,110 10,170 10,220 -
Total assets 28,462 28,349 28,730 29,980 -
Short term borrowings 0 500 500 500 -
Payables 4,465 3,794 3,533 3,710 -
Other short term liabilities 6,003 6,011 6,297 6,532 -
Current liabilities 10,468 10,305 10,330 10,742 -
Long-term debt 3,355 2,859 2,859 2,859 -
Other long term liabilities 8,636 8,821 8,889 8,945 -
Total liabilities 22,459 21,985 22,078 22,546 -
Shareholders' equity 6,003 6,364 6,652 7,434 -
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 -
Total liabilities & equity 28,462 28,349 28,730 29,980 -
BVPS 4.94 5.40 5.73 6.52 -
y/y Growth 2.2% 9.4% 6.0% 13.8% -
Net debt/(cash) (2,872) (2,618) (1,661) (1,715) -
Cash flow from operating activities 3,057 4,084 4,758 5,705 -
o/w Depreciation & amortization 868 887 977 1,026 -
o/w Changes in working capital (1,489) (728) (421) 46 -
Cash flow from investing activities (1,046) (1,470) (1,800) (1,800) -
o/w Capital expenditure (1,045) (1,457) (1,800) (1,800) -
as % of sales 2.2% 2.9% 3.4% 3.2% -
Cash flow from financing activities (6,200) (3,306) (3,915) (3,851) -
o/w Dividends paid (1,252) (1,339) (1,545) (1,481) -
o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) (2,976) 0 0 0 -
Net change in cash (4,243) (750) (957) 54 -
Adj. Free cash flow to firm 2,013 2,627 3,044 3,948 -
y/y Growth (49.6%) 30.5% 15.9% 29.7% -
Income Statement - Quarterly 1Q24E 2Q24E 3Q24E 4Q24E
Revenue 11,822 12,375 13,001 15,988
COGS (8,328) (8,757) (9,073) (11,556)
Gross profit - - - -
SG&A (2,405) (2,381) (2,430) (2,859)
Adj. EBITDA 1,316 1,464 1,732 1,862
D&A (228) (228) (233) (288)
Adj. EBIT 1,089 1,236 1,498 1,574
Net Interest 29 29 29 29
Adj. PBT 1,118 1,265 1,527 1,603
Tax (295) (325) (400) (412)
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Adj. Net Income 823 940 1,127 1,191
Reported EPS 0.70 0.81 0.97 1.03
Adj. EPS 0.70 0.81 0.97 1.03
DPS - - - -
Payout ratio - - - -
Shares outstanding 1,167 1,164 1,160 1,156
Same Store Sales Growth - - - -
Ratio Analysis FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Gross margin 28.5% 27.6% 29.1% 29.8% -
EBITDA margin 11.6% 11.5% 12.0% 12.7% -
EBIT margin 9.3% 9.3% 10.1% 10.8% -
Net profit margin 7.1% 7.3% 7.7% 8.1% -
ROE 58.5% 59.2% 62.7% 64.1% -
ROA 11.7% 12.9% 14.3% 15.4% -
ROCE 31.7% 36.7% 40.5% 43.0% -
SG&A/Sales 18.7% 17.9% 18.9% 19.0% -
Net debt/equity NM NM NM NM -
P/E (x) 27.7 25.3 22.4 19.9 -
P/BV (x) 16.0 14.6 13.8 12.1 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 12.8 11.6 10.4 -
Dividend Yield - - - - -
Sales/Assets (x) 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 -
Interest cover (x) 48.9 899.3 - - -
Operating leverage 3076.8% 100.8% 249.7% 240.3% -
Revenue y/y Growth 51.1% 2.9% 6.5% 5.0% -
EBITDA y/y Growth 287.0% 1.8% 11.4% 11.0% -
EBIT y/y Growth 1571.4% 2.9% 16.3% 12.0% -
Tax rate 25.4% 24.6% 26.0% 26.1% -
Adj. Net Income y/y Growth 1024.8% 5.8% 11.4% 10.6% -
EPS y/y Growth 1017.4% 9.2% 13.0% 12.6% -
DPS y/y Growth - - - - -
Store Count - - - - -
Sales per Store - - - - -
Total Square Footage - - - - -
Sales per sq foot - - - - -
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: $ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Jan. o/w - out of which
7Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
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with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
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Date Rating Price ($) Price Target
($)
24-Feb-20 OW 63.31 69
23-Mar-20 OW 37.37 51
18-May-20 OW 47.17 52
21-May-20 OW 50.85 60
12-Aug-20 OW 57.51 63
18-Sep-20 OW 55.94 66
18-Nov-20 OW 61.14 70
04-Jan-21 OW 68.29 74
07-Apr-21 OW 67.64 78
17-May-21 OW 72.43 81
20-May-21 OW 67.38 80
16-Aug-21 OW 70.49 86
19-Nov-21 OW 73.10 92
17-Feb-22 OW 67.10 85
23-Feb-22 OW 65.25 81
16-May-22 OW 57.19 76
25-Jul-22 OW 63.76 71
16-Sep-22 OW 64.88 80
16-Nov-22 OW 75.12 90
06-Feb-23 OW 80.52 95
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average
total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect
8Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.]
Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s
(or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this
stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable,
the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia and ex-India)
and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country
market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying
analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, https://www.jpmorganmarkets.com.
Coverage Universe: Boss, Matthew R: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF), Allbirds (BIRD), American Eagle
Outfitters (AEO), Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI), Big Lots, Inc. (BIG), Boot Barn (BOOT), Bowlero Corp. (BOWL), Brilliant Earth (BRLT),
Brunswick Corp (BC), Burlington Stores (BURL), Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI), Dillard's, Inc. (DDS), Dollar General Corp. (DG), Dollar Tree,
Inc. (DLTR), Five Below (FIVE), Foot Locker (FL), Kohl's Corp. (KSS), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), Macy's, Inc. (M), Mytheresa (MYTE),
NIKE, Inc. (NKE), Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI), PVH Corp. (PVH), Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL), Ross
Stores (ROST), TJX Companies (TJX), Tapestry Inc (TPR), The Gap, Inc. (GPS), Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG), Under Armour,
Inc. (UAA), Urban Outfitters (URBN), V.F. Corporation (VFC), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), lululemon athletica inc. (LULU)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of January 01, 2023
Overweight
(buy)
Neutral
(hold)
Underweight
(sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage* 48% 37% 14%
IB clients** 47% 45% 35%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage* 47% 40% 13%
IB clients** 65% 66% 55%
*Please note that the percentages might not add to 100% because of rounding.
**Percentage of subject companies within each of the "buy," "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
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9Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
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Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
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11
Matthew R. Boss, CPA
(1-212) 622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
22 February 2023 J P M O R G A N
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Completed 22 Feb 2023 01:41 PM EST Disseminated 22 Feb 2023 01:41 PM EST
